The growth rate of special chemicals in China slowed down significantly in the first four months
In the first four months of 2012, the economic growth rate of the oil and chemical industries continued to decline, and the downward pressure increased. However, the fundamentals of economic operation have not yet undergone major changes. The production of major products remained stable, the market demand remained basically stable, the price increase of the industry continued to decline, the benefit decline slowed, and investment continued to grow rapidly. However, uncertainties and instability factors in the economic operation increased. With the slowdown in macroeconomic growth, weak domestic and external demand growth, and weakened industrial economic growth, attention should be paid to the situation.
I. Main features of the economic operation of the industry
(A) The growth rate continues to slow
According to statistics from the Statistics Bureau, as of the end of April, there were 26,650 enterprises above designated size in the petroleum and chemical industries (companies with a main income of over 20 million yuan). From January to April, the total industrial output value was 3.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 14.7% year-on-year, an increase rate of 1 From March to March, it fell by 1.4 percentage points, accounting for 13.8% of the country's total industrial output value. The industry added value increased by 8.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 0.3% from January to March, accounting for 15.1% of the national industrial added value. In April, the economic growth rate of the industry fell more than expected, and the downward pressure increased significantly. However, the fundamentals of the economic operation of the industry have not yet undergone major changes, and growth is still in a moderately slow range.
The oil refining industry has fallen by a large margin. From January to April, the output value of the chemical industry was 2.18 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.7% year-on-year; the output value of the oil refining industry was 1.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.4%; the output value of the oil and gas extraction industry was 444.81 billion yuan, an increase of 14.6%. In the first four months, the special equipment manufacturing industry continued to grow at a relatively rapid rate, with a cumulative production value of 82.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.2%.
In April, the output value of the oil refining industry was 278.60 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.5 percent, an increase of 7.3 percentage points from that in March; the chemical industry output value was 592.24 billion yuan, an increase of 12.2 percent, an increase of 4.5 percentage points from March; the output value of the oil and gas industry was 120.68 billion yuan. Yuan, an increase of 10.8%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the increase in March; special equipment manufacturing output value of 21.98 billion yuan, an increase of 19.0%.
The growth of agrochemicals and rubber products continues to lead. In the chemical industry, the growth rate of agrochemicals and rubber products in April was significantly faster than other industries. The output value of chemical fertilizers increased by 18.9% during the month, an increase of 6.7 percentage points over the average value of chemical production; the pesticide manufacturing industry increased by 19.2%, an increase of 7 percentage points over the chemical industry average; the rubber products industry increased by 18.0%, and the average increase over the chemical industry was 5.8 percentage points. .
In the three chemical sectors, the growth rate of specialty chemicals has slowed down significantly. In April, the growth rates of basic chemical raw materials, specialty chemicals, and synthetic materials all declined at different levels. Among them, the output value of specialty chemicals was 126.85 billion yuan, an increase of only 8.4% year-on-year. The increase rate was nearly 10 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, and the fluctuation was intensifying. The output value of basic chemical raw materials was 159.13 billion yuan, an increase of 11.8%, 3.8 percentage points lower than the previous month; The output value of materials was 106.43 billion yuan, an increase of 10.4%, and the increase rate was down by 1.8 percentage points from the previous month. The downturn was slowed down and there were signs of stabilization.
The slowdown in growth in the central region is evident. From a regional perspective, from January to April, the output value of the eastern region was 2.47 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.8% year-on-year, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from January to March; the output value of the central region was 689.354 billion yuan, an increase of 17.8%, which was lower than that of January to March. 3.4 percentage points, the downlink significantly accelerated; the western region output value of 642.745 billion yuan, an increase of 19.1%, compared with January to March dropped by 1 percentage point. The growth of the eastern and western regions showed a more stable trend.
Domestic-funded enterprises and non-public economies have maintained rapid growth. According to the type of registration, from January to April, the output value of domestic-funded enterprises increased by 16.9% year-on-year, accounting for 81.3%; Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-funded enterprises increased by 6.6%, accounting for approximately 6.7%; foreign-funded enterprises increased by 5.8%, accounting for approximately 12.0%; The growth rate of Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and foreign-funded enterprises all slowed down from January to March. From a controlling perspective, from January to April, the output value of non-publicly-owned holding economies increased by 19.2% year-on-year, accounting for 48.2%; the publicly-owned holding economy increased by 10.7%, accounting for 47.5%; other economies grew by 11.8%, accounting for 4.3%. %.
(II) Basic product growth is basically stable
From January to April, the country’s crude oil and natural gas output was approximately 101 million tons of oil equivalent, which was a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, a 0.2% growth rate slower from January to March, and the total amount of major chemicals was approximately 147 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%. From January to March, it increased by 0.2%; the overall production remained stable.
The decline in crude oil production has narrowed and natural gas has grown steadily. From January to April, the country’s crude oil production stood at 67.48 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from January to March, and natural gas output of 37.31 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%. The increase was unchanged from January to February. In the first four months, the country’s crude oil processing volume was 153 million tons, an increase of 2.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate continued to slow down. The refined oil production (gas, coal, and diesel, the same below) was 92.4 million tons, an increase of 5.3%.
Fertilizers and pesticides maintained rapid growth. From January to April, the country's chemical fertilizer production (refine, the same below) was 23.455 million tons, an increase of 15.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 10.5 percentage points higher than the same period of last year. From January to April, the output of synthetic ammonia was 17.753 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%; the output of pesticides (100%) was 1.184 million tons, an increase of 23.7%, of which 522,000 tons were herbicides, an increase of 39.3%.
Ethylene continued to decline, and the growth of other key products remained basically stable. From January to April, the national output of ethylene was 5.133 million tons, which was a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, and the rate of decline was larger than that of the previous March; methanol production was 8.433 million tons, an increase of 15.6%; sulfuric acid production was 23,433,000 tons, an increase of 3.7%; and caustic soda production was 8.632 million tons. Growth of 5.7%; calcium carbide production 6.278 million tons, an increase of 12.4%; chemical reagents 3.533 million tons, an increase of 21.8%; synthetic resin 16.67 million tons, an increase of 7.7%, of which polyvinyl chloride production 4.475 million tons, an increase of 5.6%; The volume of production was 7.314 million tons, an increase of 15.9%; the production of tire tires was 260 million, an increase of 3.9%, of which the production of radial tires was 130 million, an increase of 6.8%.
(III) Investment growth continues to accelerate
From January to April, the investment in fixed assets of the petroleum and chemical industries was 371.506 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.4%, an acceleration of 8 percentage points from the same period of last year, and an acceleration of 2.5 percentage points from the previous three months, which was higher than the average increase in national fixed asset investment. 8.2%, investment growth rate further accelerated.
Investment in oil and gas exploration achieved growth. From January to April, the investment in oil and natural gas exploration industry was 46.414 billion yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year, ending the continuous decline this year, accounting for 12.5% ​​of the total investment in the industry; chemical industry investment was 268.642 billion yuan, an increase of 32.0% over the same period of last year. Compared with 72.3%, the oil processing industry invested 40.582 billion yuan, an increase of 36.4%, accounting for 10.9%. In the first four months, the investment in special equipment manufacturing was 15.868 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61.2%, and continued to maintain a high-speed growth trend, accounting for 4.3%.
In the chemical industry, the growth of synthetic materials, basic chemical raw materials, and paint manufacturing has increased rapidly. From January to April, the investment in synthetic materials was 35.903 billion yuan, an increase of 59.2% year-on-year. It continued to rank first in the chemical industry, accounting for 13.4% of the total chemical investment, and the basic chemical raw material manufacturing investment was 84.146 billion yuan, an increase of 37.8%, ranking second. The proportion was 31.3%; the paint industry ranked third with an increase of 31.4%.
Regional investment accelerated and the central region maintained a relatively high growth rate. In terms of regions, from January to April, investment in the eastern region increased 29.9% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.5 percentage points from January to March, accounting for 54.6% of the total investment in the country; investment in the central region increased by 43.5%, compared with 1 to 3 The monthly increase was 3.7 percentage points, accounting for 23.9% of the total; the investment in the western region increased by 21.3%, and the growth rate increased by 3.5 percentage points from January to March, accounting for 21.5%.
Domestic investment and foreign investment continued to increase rapidly, and the decline in Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan increased. In terms of different types of economy, from January to April, domestic-funded enterprises invested 334.914 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.8%, accounting for 90.2% of the total investment in the industry; Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan investment 10.125 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.2%, accounting for 2.7%; The investment was 26.021 billion yuan, an increase of 29.0%, accounting for 7.0%. In the first four months, self-employed persons invested 466 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.3 times, accounting for 0.13%.
New projects continue to grow rapidly. From January to April, 3638 new projects were started in the petroleum and chemical industries, an increase of 11.1% year-on-year. Among them, 3,117 new projects in the chemical industry, an increase of 11.0%; 197 new projects in the petroleum processing industry, an increase of 10.7%; 93 new projects in the oil and gas exploration industry, an increase of 2.2%; 231 new projects in the special equipment manufacturing industry , an increase of 16.7%. In general, the growth of new projects has slowed down. In the first four months, there were 8083 projects under construction in the oil and chemical industry, an increase of 4.4% year-on-year.
(IV) Further decline in foreign trade growth
The slowdown in import growth has led to an increase in export declines. Statistics show that from January to April, the total import and export volume of the entire industry was US$211.71 billion, which represented a year-on-year increase of 12.3%, a decrease of 4 percentage points from January to March, accounting for 18.1% of the total import and export volume of the country. Among them, imports were US$158.222 billion, an increase of 15.3% year-on-year, accounting for 27.6% of the total imports of the country; exports were US$51.468 billion, up 4.2%, accounting for 9.0% of the country's total exports. In the first four months, the cumulative deficit was US$104.734 billion, an increase of 22.0% over the same period last year.
In April, the total import and export volume of the petroleum and chemical industries was US$52.506 billion, an increase of only 1.7% over the same period of last year, and the increase was down by 8 percentage points from March. Among them, total imports increased by 4.3%, which was nearly 10 percentage points lower than that of March; exports decreased by 5.2%, and the decline rate was 3.7 percentage points higher than that in March.
Energy imports have maintained rapid growth. From January to April, domestic imports of 92.859 million tons of crude oil, an increase of 9.3%; import value of 78.193 billion US dollars, an increase of 28.7%, accounting for 49.4% of the total industry import trade; import average price of 842.1 US dollars / ton, up 17.8%. The imported natural gas was 9.137 million tons, an increase of 54.6% over the same period last year, amounting to US$5.052 billion, an increase of 110.3%. In the first four months, China imported 12.183 million tons of organic chemicals, a year-on-year increase of 10.8% and a net import of 8.742 million tons; imported synthetic resin was 9.601 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.9% and a net import of 8.364 million tons.
Exports of rubber products kept steady growth, and chemical fertilizers continued to decline. From January to April, the export value of rubber products was 12.835 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 12.0% over the same period of last year. The increase rate was 0.9 percentage point lower than that of January to March, accounting for 24.0% of the total export volume. Fertilizer exports 1.19 million tons (in kind), a year-on-year decrease of 34.4%, and exports were US$770 million, down 20.1%.
(5) The overall market demand is stable
Data show that from January to April, China's apparent consumption of oil and gas (oil equivalent) was 210 million tons, an increase of 7.0% year-on-year, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from January to March; the total apparent consumption of major chemicals was approximately 1.41. Billion tons, an increase of 9.3%, an increase of 0.1% from January to March.
Slower oil consumption and stable natural gas growth. From January to April, the apparent consumption of domestic oil was 165 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, and the growth rate slowed by 0.7% from January to March; the apparent consumption of crude oil was 159 million tons, an increase of 4.6%, an increase of 1 to 1. In March, it dropped 0.8 percentage points, 3.1 percentage points lower than the same period of last year, and the import dependency was 57.7%. The apparent consumption of natural gas was 49.15 billion cubic meters, a growth rate of 16.4%, which was the same as that of January-March, accounting for the apparent consumption of oil and natural gas. The total equivalent of 21.1%. In the first four months, the apparent consumption of refined oil (gas, coal, and diesel, the same below) was 90.619 million tons, an increase of 4.8% year-on-year, and the increase rate was down by 1 percentage point from January to March.
Fertilizer consumption increased at a higher rate. From January to April, the apparent consumption of chemical fertilizers across the country (refine, the same below) was 24.46 million tons, an increase of 15.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 12.4 percentage points higher than the same period of last year. Among them, the apparent consumption of urea was 9.578 million tons, an increase of 9.7%; the apparent consumption of phosphate fertilizer was 5.865 million tons, an increase of 25.0%; the apparent consumption of potassium fertilizer was 2.743 million tons, an increase of 24.9%; and the diammonium phosphate (in kind) was apparent. The consumption was 4.587 million tons, an increase of 5.0%.
The consumption of basic chemical raw materials was generally stable, and the demand for synthetic materials continued to rise. From January to April, the apparent consumption of ethylene was 5.556 million tons, which was a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%, and the first negative growth in three years. The apparent consumption of methanol was 10.19 million tons, an increase of 13.4%; the apparent consumption of sulfuric acid was 24.29 million tons, an increase of 3.8%. The growth rate increased by 0.4 percentage points from January to March; the apparent consumption of caustic soda was 7.831 million tons, an increase of 3.8%, which was 0.5 percentage points higher than that from January to March; the apparent consumption of soda ash was 7.353 million tons, an increase of 8.0%. Views of consumption amounted to 6.218 million tons, an increase of 12.5%, and consumption of soda ash and calcium carbide has moderated. In the first four months, the apparent consumption of synthetic resin was 25.131 million tons, an increase of 6.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1% higher than that of January-March; the apparent consumption of synthetic rubber was 1.616 million tons, an increase of 5.4% over 1-3%. The monthly increase of 0.7 percentage points; the apparent consumption of synthetic fiber monomers 12.85 million tons, an increase of 16.6%, continued rapid growth.
(6) Slowing down of benefits
From January to March, the decline in the efficiency of the petroleum and chemical industries has slowed. The decline in profits narrowed, and refining losses have eased; however, industry costs have continued to rise at a high level; losses of loss-making enterprises have maintained large increases, and the business environment of enterprises remains severe.
The decline in profits narrowed. According to statistics, from January to March, the total profit of the petroleum and chemical industry was 172.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.0%, a decrease of 7 percentage points from January to February, accounting for 16.5% of the total industrial profits of the above-scale industries in the same period; taxes paid 1986.65 Billion yuan, an increase of 3.9% year-on-year; main business revenue was 2.70 trillion yuan, an increase of 14.7%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from January to February, accounting for 13.7% of the nation's main industry-based revenue; assets totaling 8.10 trillion yuan. , an increase of 15.7%; employees 6,677,700, an increase of 2.8%.
The cost continues to operate at a high level, and the loss of loss-making enterprises maintains a large increase. From January to March, the cost of petroleum and chemical industry sales was 2.24 trillion yuan, up 18.6% year-on-year, and the increase was only 1 percentage point lower than that of January to February; the cost of revenue per 100 yuan was 82.71 yuan, a slight decrease of 0.14 from January to February. Yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.67 yuan; finished product funds of 316.26 billion yuan, an increase of 18.0% year-on-year, and the finished product funds occupancy rate was 11.70%. From January to March, there were 4971 loss-making enterprises in the industry, an increase of 21.1% year-on-year, with a loss of 18.4%, which was a decrease of 2% from January to February; loss of loss-making enterprises was 41.085 billion yuan, an increase of 143.1% year-on-year; 4.51 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.4% year-on-year, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 55.63%, which was 3.8 percentage points higher than January-February.
The loss in the refining industry decreased. Statistics show that from January to March, the cumulative loss of the oil refining industry was 8.219 billion yuan, a decrease of 987 million yuan from January to February. With the drop in crude oil prices and the adjustment of refined oil prices, the situation of refining losses will be further improved.
(VII) Low price operation, smooth production and sales
The price runs low. Statistics Bureau price monitoring showed that in April, the producer prices of oil and chemical industries rose by 4.0% year-on-year, a drop of 1 percentage point from March. In terms of sub-industries, the oil and natural gas extraction industry increased by 4.7% year-on-year, 2.5 percentage points lower than that in March; the oil refining industry increased by 8.8%, 1.1 percentage points lower than in March; chemical industry prices continued to decline, only 0.4%, compared with March. Drop 0.7 percentage points. From January to April, the ex-factory prices of producers in the petroleum and chemical industries rose by 5.0% year-on-year, which was a 0.4 percentage point decrease from January to March.
Fertilizer prices rose steadily, and specialty chemicals and synthetic materials continued to lead the chemical market. In April, the overall level of fertilizer prices rose by 8.1% year-on-year, 0.6 percentage points higher than in March, maintaining a high operating trend; the prices of synthetic materials and specialty chemicals fell by 9.0% and 4.9% respectively year-on-year; in addition, basic chemical materials also fell. Ranks, a decrease of 3.5%.
Production and sales remain smooth. From January to April, the cumulative sales rate of petroleum and chemical industry products was 98.0%, which was 0.2 percentage point higher than that of January-March. Among them, the oil and natural gas extraction and sales rate was 99.0%, the refining oil was 98.8%, and the chemical industry was 97.4%. In April, the sales rate of petroleum and chemical products was 98.3%, which was the same as last month.
Second, the impact of the macroeconomic situation on the industry
(A) The world economy continues to recover weakly
The economies of Europe, the United States, Japan, and other countries have maintained growth. The data released by Eurostat on May 15 showed that in the first quarter of 2012, the GDP of the EU and the euro zone were all equal to the previous quarter, and they have not yet fallen into an economic recession. Among them, Germany's gross domestic product (GDP) grew rapidly, and the adjusted initial value of GDP in the first quarter increased by 0.5% from the previous period, far exceeding the economists’ previous 0.1% growth forecast; it increased by 1.7% year-on-year, also much higher than expected. 0.8%. US manufacturing continued to expand. The US Institute of Supply Management (ISM) recently announced that the US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) reached 54.8 in April, the highest in the past 10 months. The Japanese economy continues to grow. A few days ago, Japan’s Cabinet Office released an immediate report showing that after deducting price changes, Japan’s real GDP grew by 1% in the first quarter of this year and by 4.1% year-on-year. This is Japan's GDP growth for three consecutive quarters. The economic development in developed countries and regions is of great significance to the recovery of the world economy.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised global economic growth this year. On April 17, the IMF released its latest "Global Economic Outlook" report. It is expected that the global economic growth in 2012 will be 3.5%, which is 0.2% higher than that in January this year. The report also predicts that the economic growth rate of major developing economies will still be significantly faster than that of major advanced economies in the next two years; the US economic growth rate is expected to be 2.1% and 2.4% respectively, up 0.3 and 0.2 from the previous forecast. Percentage point; Eurozone economic growth rate was negative 0.3% and positive growth rate of 0.9%, respectively, 0.2% and 0.1% higher than the previous forecast value; China's economy will increase by 8.2% this year, up 0.1% from the previous forecast value, next year's growth 8.8%, the same as the previous forecast.
(II) Increased downward pressure on domestic economy
The economy continues to slow. From January to April, the total industrial output value of enterprises above designated size was 27.56 trillion yuan, up by 14.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate was down by 1.4% from January to March; the industrial added value of above-scale enterprises increased by 11.0% year-on-year, which was lower than that from January to March. 0.6 percentage points; the first four months, the country's fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) 7.56 trillion yuan, an increase of 20.2%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from January to March slowdown; continued to slow down; total retail sales of social consumer goods 6.49 trillion Yuan, an increase of 14.7%, fell 0.1% from January to March, maintaining a steady and rapid growth; the total value of imports and exports was 1.17 trillion US dollars, an increase of 6.0% from the same period of last year, and the increase rate was 1.3 percentage points lower than that of January to March.
The overall price increase continues to fall. In April, the country’s total consumer price index (CPI) rose by 3.4% year-on-year, which was 0.2 percentage points lower than that in March. The industrial producer’s ex-factory price (PPI) fell by 0.7% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.4% from March. In April, China's manufacturing PMI was 53.3, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month and rising for the fifth consecutive month.
In order to stabilize economic growth, the country has recently introduced or brewing a major initiative to launch: First, cut reserve deposits. On May 12, the central bank lowered the deposit reserve ratio of deposit-taking financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points again; the RRR cut will moderate the monetary easing and ease the current tight liquidity situation in the market. The second is financial support for energy-saving appliances. The State Council held an executive meeting on May 16 to discuss and adopt the "12th Five-Year Plan" of the National Basic Public Service System to study and determine the policies and measures for promoting the consumption of energy-saving home appliances and other products. The third is multi-sector brewing to increase structural tax cuts and other new policies to expand domestic demand. The National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Commerce, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology are brewing a series of new policies to expand domestic demand. These include: increasing the examination and approval of major infrastructure projects for people's livelihood, monitoring land use for expanding domestic demand, and increasing structural tax cuts. The promotion and implementation of the above policies will help stabilize growth and economic restructuring.
(III) Economic Operation of Major Related Industries
1. Coal industry
Slowing growth. According to statistics, from January to April, the output value of the coal industry was 952.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.8%, and the rate of increase was down 1.6 percentage points from January to March. Although the growth rate has slowed down, it is still relatively fast. From January to April, the added value of the coal industry increased by 11.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate slowed by 0.4% from January to March.
Investment maintains rapid growth. Relevant statistics show that from January to April, the coal industry completed fixed asset investment of 93.4 billion yuan, an increase of 30% over the same period of last year, which was nearly 10 percentage points higher than the average increase in total fixed asset investment.
The price trend has stabilized. The Bureau of Statistics' price index shows that in April, the total price level of coal mining and washing industry rose by 3.4% year-on-year, 0.4% lower than that in March, and the price trend stabilized. Market monitoring showed that in April, the average price of Shanyou 5500 kcal Qinhuangdao Port was 785 yuan/ton, which was 5 yuan/ton higher than that in March.
2. Automotive industry
The economic growth of the automotive industry has been steadily accelerating. Relevant data show that from January to April, the output value of the national automobile manufacturing industry was 1.59 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.9%, an acceleration rate of 0.5 percentage points from January to March; the value-added of the automobile manufacturing industry increased by 8.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1 ~ 0.4% acceleration in March. From January to April, the country's total automobile output was 6.958 million, an increase of 3.1% year-on-year, and the first increase since the fourth quarter of last year.
The investment continues to increase substantially. In the first four months, the total investment in the national automobile manufacturing industry was 182.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.6%, an increase of 2 percentage points from the previous March, and an average increase of more than 20 percentage points over the same period in the national fixed asset investment, which was the fastest growing investment. One of the industries.
The price is generally stable. Data show that in April, the national automobile industry's total price level fell by 0.8% year-on-year, a slight increase of 0.4% over March. From January to April, the cumulative total decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, which was a 0.2% increase from January to March. The overall trend of car prices is relatively stable, with little fluctuation.
3. Real estate industry
The degree of prosperity continues to decline. Statistics show that from January to April, the national investment in real estate development reached 1.58 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.7%, an increase of 4.8 percentage points from January to March, and for the first time in recent years, it was lower than the national average growth rate of fixed asset investment; 4.272 billion square meters, an increase of 21.2%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points from January to March; the area of ​​new housing starts was 545 million square meters, which was a decrease of 4.2% year-on-year, and the first time in recent years; the area of ​​commercial housing sales was 216 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 13.4. %, housing sales continued to shrink. The index of real estate development in April was 95.62 points, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the prosperity index continued to decline for the sixth consecutive month. In general, the future real estate industry will continue to call back.
4. Textile industry
Slow economic growth. Data show that from January to April, the output value of the textile industry was 1.64 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.2%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points from January to March. In April, the value added of the textile industry increased by 11.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 2.6 percentage points from March.
The increase in investment dropped. According to statistics from the Bureau of Statistics, the total investment in the textile industry in the first three months was 62.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, a decrease of 5.5 percentage points from January to February.
The sales growth of the market has been accelerated and the price has been operating stably. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to April, retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and needles in retail sales of enterprises above designated size (units) were 309.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.6%. The data also shows that from January to April, the total price level of China's textile industry decreased by 3.7% year-on-year, 0.4% more than that in January-March, and the decline continued to narrow. Overall, the textile industry is operating at relatively low prices, but it is relatively stable.
5. Plastic products industry
Economic growth slowed down. According to the data, from January to April, the output value of the plastic products industry was 476.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%, and the increase rate was 2.6 percentage points lower than that of the period from January to March. From January to April, the output of plastic products nationwide was 17.314 million tons, an increase of 8.9% year-on-year, an increase of 0.6% from January to March.
The increase in investment dropped. From January to March, the investment in the rubber and plastic products industry was 58.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.6%, a decrease of 7.5 percentage points from January to February.
The overall price performance is stable. From January to April, the total price level of the plastics industry rose by 0.3% year-on-year, 0.2 percentage point lower than that of January to March. In general, the plastic products industry operates at a low price, and corporate profits are meager.
According to industry statistics provided by the National Bureau of Statistics in the past five years, there are phenomena of "3 highs and 4 lows" in the oil and chemical industry. Based on the situation of the industry operation in the first four months, we have preliminary judgments: In May and June, there is little room for the industry to continue to decline. However, due to factors such as the complicated and changing international economic environment, the possibility of a rapid recovery of the industry is also unlikely. The overall operation of the industry will assume stability as the mainstay. If the domestic macroeconomic policies are stable, the industry operation is expected to slowly pick up. It is initially expected that the industrial industrial output value and industrial added value in the second quarter will increase by 16% and 8.5% respectively over the same period last year.
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