According to the latest analysis from the Information Department of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, since the fourth quarter, the industry has faced growing challenges. Rapid capacity expansion combined with weakened downstream demand have led to slower growth in demand and intensified price declines, resulting in significant market volatility.
In November, out of 64 tracked petroleum and chemical products, 57 saw production increases (89.1%), while 7 experienced year-on-year declines (10.9%). Among the 144 tracked products, 50 saw monthly price increases (34.7%), 83 experienced price drops (57.6%), and 67 showed year-on-year price changes (46.5%). Additionally, 57 products saw year-on-year declines (39.6%).
Despite these challenges, overall production remained strong in November. Crude oil output rose slightly to 14.804 million tons, a 2.4% increase year-on-year. Natural gas production surged by 35.4%, reaching 4.75 billion cubic meters—the highest monthly growth since the start of the year. From January to November, crude oil production totaled 166 million tons, up 4.1% year-on-year, while crude oil processing reached 261 million tons, an increase of 7.0%.
Refined oil production remained stable, with total output at 14.87 million tons, a 6.8% rise compared to the same period last year. Gasoline output was 4.662 million tons (up 4.5%), and diesel output reached 9.395 million tons (up 9.6%). The diesel-to-gasoline ratio stood at 2.02.
Fertilizer production grew modestly, with total output at 4.056 million tons, up 7.5% year-on-year. Urea output rose 6.3% to 1.729 million tons, while phosphate fertilizer output increased by 5.6%. Ammonium phosphate output climbed 15.2%.
Pesticide production accelerated significantly, with original drug output rising 32.5% to 86,000 tons. Herbicide and pesticide outputs were 25,000 and 30,000 tons respectively, up 34.7% and 20.5%. The proportion of pesticides in the total pesticide output dropped to 41.0%, down 3 percentage points from the previous year.
Inorganic chemical production continued to grow rapidly, driven by new capacities. Soda ash output reached 1.291 million tons (up 18%), and caustic soda output hit 1.092 million tons (up 20.5%). Ion-exchange membrane caustic soda accounted for 31.3% of total output, up 33.5%.
Organic chemical production also saw rapid growth, with ethylene output rising 21.8% to 682,000 tons and methanol output increasing 24.3% to 466,000 tons.
Synthetic materials production expanded steadily. Synthetic resin output reached 1.667 million tons (up 18.9%), with PVC and PE outputs at 578,000 and 475,000 tons respectively. Synthetic rubber output was 149,000 tons (up 19.5%), and synthetic fiber output rose to 1.314 million tons (up 17.9%).
Rubber product output maintained strong growth. Tire production reached 29.543 million units (up 34.9%), with radial tires at 12.793 million (up 30.5%). Rubber shoe output surged to 135.736 million pairs (up 57.5%).
Overall, petroleum and chemical product prices declined in November. Out of 139 tracked products, 79 saw price drops (56.8%), 50 saw increases (36%), and 10 remained flat (7.2%). Compared to the same period last year, 62 products rose (44.6%) and 57 fell (41%).
Crude oil prices fell along with global trends. Unleaded petrol (90#) averaged 5,329 yuan/ton, down 39.1% year-on-year. Diesel (0#) averaged 4,824 yuan/ton, up 4.4% year-on-year.
Organic chemical raw material prices declined sharply. Propylene, butadiene, naphthalene, and toluene all saw significant drops. Inorganic chemical prices fluctuated, with some rising and others falling. Fertilizer prices continued to fall, with urea down 4.4% year-on-year.
Synthetic resin prices generally declined, with PVC down 20.3% year-on-year. Natural rubber prices rose sharply, with No. 1 rubber up 15.4% year-on-year. Synthetic rubber prices fell due to lower crude oil costs.
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