According to a report from the Information Department of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, since the fourth quarter, the industry has experienced significant challenges. Rapid capacity expansion combined with weakened downstream demand have led to slowing growth and intensified price declines across many product categories, causing market volatility.
In November, out of 64 tracked petroleum and chemical products, 57 saw year-on-year increases (89.1%), while 7 faced declines (10.9%). Among 144 total products monitored, 50 showed price increases (34.7%), 83 declined (57.6%), and 67 remained stable (46.5%). Additionally, 57 products saw year-on-year decreases (39.6%).
Despite these challenges, overall production in the oil and chemical sector remained strong in November. Crude oil output rose slightly to 14.804 million tons, up 2.4% year-on-year. Natural gas production surged by 35.4%, reaching 4.75 billion cubic meters—the highest monthly increase of the year. From January to November, crude oil output totaled 166 million tons, up 4.1%, while refined oil processing reached 261 million tons, an increase of 7.0%.
Refined oil production remained stable, with 14.87 million tons produced in November—a 6.8% rise. Gasoline output was 4.662 million tons (up 4.5%), and diesel reached 9.395 million tons (up 9.6%). The diesel-to-gasoline ratio stood at 2.02.
Fertilizer production grew modestly, with chemical fertilizer output at 4.056 million tons (up 7.5%). Nitrogen fertilizer reached 3.044 million tons, including urea at 1.729 million tons (up 9.5%). Phosphate and ammonium phosphate outputs increased by 5.6% and 15.2%, respectively.
Pesticide production accelerated, with original drug output rising 32.5% to 86,000 tons. Pesticide and herbicide outputs were 30,000 and 25,000 tons, respectively—up 20.5% and 34.7%. The proportion of pesticides in the sector dropped to 41%, down 3 percentage points from the previous year.
Inorganic chemical production continued to grow rapidly, driven by new capacities. Soda ash output reached 1.291 million tons (up 18%), and caustic soda hit 1.092 million tons (up 20.5%). Ion-exchange membrane caustic soda accounted for 31.3% of total output, up 33.5%.
Organic chemical production also surged, with ethylene up 21.8% to 682,000 tons, and methanol rising 24.3% to 466,000 tons.
Synthetic materials saw steady growth. Synthetic resin output was 1.667 million tons (up 18.9%), with PVC and PE at 578,000 and 475,000 tons, respectively. Synthetic rubber output reached 149,000 tons (up 19.5%), and synthetic fiber production hit 1.314 million tons (up 17.9%).
Rubber products maintained strong growth, with tire output at 29.543 million units (up 34.9%). Radial tires rose 30.5%, while rubber shoe output reached 135.736 million pairs (up 57.5%).
Petroleum and chemical product prices generally declined in November. Of 139 tracked items, 79 (56.8%) saw price drops, 50 (36%) rose, and 10 (7.2%) remained flat. Compared to the same period last year, 62 products rose (44.6%) and 57 fell (41%).
Oil prices weakened amid falling international crude prices. Unleaded gasoline (90#) averaged 5,329 yuan/ton, down 39.1% year-on-year. Diesel (0#) averaged 4,824 yuan/ton, up 4.4% year-on-year.
Organic chemical raw material prices fell sharply, with propylene, butadiene, naphthalene, and toluene all declining. Year-on-year drops were nearly 50%, affecting industry efficiency.
Inorganic chemical prices fluctuated. Hydrochloric acid, caustic soda, yellow phosphorus, and calcium carbide saw price drops, while sulfuric acid, nitric acid, soda ash, and sulfur rose.
Fertilizer prices continued to fall. Urea averaged 1,750 yuan/ton, down 4.4% year-on-year. DAP increased slightly to 2,550 yuan/ton, up 9.7% year-on-year. Potassium chloride dropped 6.3% month-on-month.
Synthetic resin prices declined overall. PVC was at 7,175 yuan/ton, down 20.3% year-on-year. Other resins like PE, PS, PP, and ABS also saw declines.
Natural rubber prices rose significantly. No. 1 natural rubber jumped to 15,000 yuan/ton, up 15.4% year-on-year. Synthetic rubber prices fell due to lower crude oil costs, with styrene-butadiene and butadiene-butadiene rubbers both declining slightly.
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