·The second quarter of 2015 macroeconomic and capital market outlook

● Incremental funds continue to enter the market, triggering a rise in large-scale assets since 2014. Looking back over the past 10 years, the wealth of residents has grown steadily. The source of wealth appreciation has been upgraded from financial assets in the 1990s, real estate in 2000 to financial assets in 2014. It is not an accidental phenomenon that the stocks and debts that began to appear last year are the beginning of the era of financial assets.
● Understand the central bank's policies and there is still room for interest rate cuts. From the four core objectives of the central bank's monetary policy, interest rate cuts are still worth looking forward to. First, economic growth may hit a 25-year low, and steady growth indicates that the current loan interest rate needs to be lowered by more than five times. Second, the risk of deflation is higher than in 2005. Anti-deflation indicates that the interest rate of this round of deposits needs to be lowered at least three times. Third, new employment is facing a test. Fourth, to maintain financial stability, the decline in house prices indicates that the future bubble may be broken by the interest rate cut. Interest rate cuts since 2015 have nothing to do with the stock market's ups and downs, while the current currency interest rates are high and the funds are relatively tight. One of the main reasons is that the new yield rate is short-term high, and the second is that the deposit rate is too high, which should be lowered sharply.
● The direct financing space is huge, from industry to service industry. The growth momentum determines the future, the traditional growth momentum represented by cheap labor has disappeared, and the future growth momentum will come from innovation, which should shift from indirect financing of the banking system to direct financing of the capital market. Judging from the current new financing structure in China, there is huge room for direct financing development, in which equity financing is the basis of innovation, and deregulation is the general trend. China's bond market and stock market have huge room for development, and as the return on capital declines, the economic structure will also shift from industrial to service.
1. Stock deposits move, bank financing rises Total deposits decline for the first time, and stock deposits move. In the third quarter of 2014, the new deposits of financial institutions showed the first decline in the past 10 years, and only in 2007 there was only a net decline in resident deposits, which marked the beginning of a new stage of interest rate liberalization, and the competition for stock deposits has begun. . From the point of view of household savings, there have been three diversions in history. The first time was from 1997 to 2000, the second was in 2006 and 2007, and the third diversion trend appeared since 2013. In 2014, this trend became more According to the invention, the newly added resident deposits are only 4 trillion yuan, which is lower than the lowest value of the past 6 years.
The scale of public offerings has reached a new high and the base of goods has grown by leaps and bounds. From the perspective of funds, the scale of public funds in 2014 hit a record high, close to 4.5 trillion, and added 1.5 trillion in the same year. The main increase comes from the money fund. In 2014, the new base of the cargo base reached 1.3 trillion yuan. At present, the cargo base has occupied half of the public fund.
Insurance has steadily expanded. From the perspective of insurance, its scale has also reached a record high, surpassing 10 trillion for the first time, and the new assets of the year were about 2 trillion.
The trust is still expanding and the collection trust is on the rise. In the past few years, the trust has sprung up and become the second largest institution in the financial industry to manage assets. What is different from the public impression is that although the expansion of the trust scale in 2014 has slowed down, it has not stagnated. The scale of new trusts in the same year was close to 3 trillion. Although from the stock perspective, the channel business of a single trust representative is still the main body, from the incremental point of view, the scale of the collective trust in 2014 has exceeded the single trust, reflecting the increase in the scale of self-managed assets.
Asset management has grown wildly. In 2014, various asset management sub-sectors are growing. According to the latest survey data of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the size of fund accounts reached 2.15 trillion, the size of fund subsidiaries was 3.74 trillion, the asset management scale of securities companies was 7.95 trillion, and the scale of private equity funds was 2.13 trillion.
The rise of bank financing has replaced the entry of deposits into an accelerated period. Although all kinds of asset management are booming, the fastest growth is still the channel business, and this has to mention bank financing. Bank financing is also the fastest-growing asset management business last year. Official data shows that bank financing was about 16 trillion at the end of 2014, and the annual growth was about 6 trillion. The core competitiveness of bank wealth management is at the high expected rate of return. Even after the interest rate cut, the three-month financial bank's expected return rate of the joint-stock bank is still as high as 5.3%, much higher than the deposit interest rate of about 2.8% and the money fund income of about 4%. rate. And its expected rate of return is almost 100% realized, which is almost the same as deposits for residents, so its replacement of deposits is also trending.
Banking wealth management connects savings and capital markets. In the era when deposits were kings, about 90% of the funds in the bank's watches were invested in loans, and the remaining 10% were bought in bonds, which was completely insulated from the stock market. However, in the era when bank wealth management is king, the proportion of non-standard assets in wealth management cannot exceed 35%, which means that more than 65% of the funds must be allocated to standardized assets, including stock market and bond market. Therefore, bank wealth management has opened up household savings and stock market. .
2. Incremental funds will enter the market, and financial assets will be the rise of the king's assets. Due to the continuous entry of incremental funds, it can be observed that there has been a rise in the broad categories of assets since 2014: first, the rise between bonds and stocks. In the first 11 months of 2014, bonds soared, and the 5-year AA city investment rate fell from 8% to 5%. At the time, the blue-chip dividend yield represented by work behavior was as high as 7.5%, so there was a huge increase in momentum. In the next two months, its share price soared by 50%, and the dividend yield fell from 7.5% to 5%. Since the bond yield rate returned to more than 6% after the interest rate cut, the bond began to rise again after December. Secondly, the internal fluctuations of assets, such as the stock market in November and December last year, the blue-chip market surged, the GEM has soared this year. The bond market has also shown a rise from high-yield to high-grade bonds since last year.
Diversified wealth distribution of residents. According to our statistics, 40% of the new wealth of residents in 2014 comes from real estate, 17% from bank wealth management, 16% from deposits, 12% from stocks, and other trusts, funds, insurance, etc., which means The era of diversified wealth allocation of residents has arrived, and the demand for financial assets is rising sharply.
Financial assets are king. We believe that the double-country debts that began to appear last year are not accidental, but the beginning of the era of financial assets. With the deposits and real estate sources of residents' wealth-increasing sources in the past 20 years, it has become a major battlefield for future financial assets. The demand for financial assets will continue to expand, and the stocks and bonds will be long-term.
1. Demographic structure transformation, interest rates have been declining for a long time. China's demographic dividend is now turning. An important reason for the inflection point of the current residents' wealth allocation is the change in China's demographic structure. Since 2011, the total number and proportion of China's 15-64 working-age population has declined, which has produced far-reaching interest rates and real estate trends. ring.
With an aging population, zero interest rates are a long-term trend. Observing the Fed's official benchmark interest rate trend We have found that the past 100 years can be roughly divided into three cycles, and the direction is changed every 30 years or so. This official interest rate trend is highly consistent with the growth rate of the US youth population aged 25-44, which means that in the long run, demographic changes are the most critical factor affecting interest rate movements. With the emergence of the inflection point of China's demographic dividend, zero interest rate is a long-term trend, and has nothing to do with the central bank's policy orientation.
The demographic structure and the real estate cycle also have important links, because the real estate needs are mainly concentrated in the young people's mouth, so with the end of the demographic dividend period, the real estate market of all developed countries has successively turned inflection points. Among them, Japan was the oldest, the real estate bubble was first shattered, and the first one entered zero interest rate. The United States and Europe entered the aging age before and after 2010. There was also a turning point in the real estate market, and they entered the era of zero interest rates.
2. Economic growth or low innovation, loan interest rates need to be lowered Economic growth may hit a 25-year low. First, from the perspective of economic growth, GDP growth rate was 7.4% in 2014, and the GDP growth rate in 2015 was lowered to 7%. In the first two months of 2015, the industrial growth rate was only 6.8%, setting a new low since 2009, indicating that the GDP growth rate in the first quarter of 2015 may have dropped to around 7%.
Steady growth: The loan interest rate needs to be lowered by more than five times. From the perspective of economic growth, the current various indicators are located near the low point of the past 25 years, and the corresponding loan interest rate should also drop to an all-time low. The current loan benchmark interest rate is 5.35%, which is equivalent to the historical minimum of 5.31%. However, considering the actual loan interest rate of financial institutions as high as 6.92% at the end of last year, it should be around 6.7% after the interest rate cut in March, which is higher than the benchmark interest rate of 130bp. Therefore, from the perspective of real loan interest rates, the potential interest rate cuts in the future may be more than five times.
3. The risk of deflation remains unresolved, and the interest rate on deposits needs to be lowered. The risk of deflation is even worse than in 2005. Looking at the inflation situation, we predict that the 2015 CPI will be 1.5% and the PPI will be -4%. The PPI deflation will be basically the same as in 1998, 2002 and 2009, while the CPI is still in the positive range, but it will also The 2006 lows are similar, only better than 1998, 2002 and 2009. Taking into account the trend of CPI and PPI, the average value may fall below 0, which means that deflation becomes a real risk, and the severity is even worse than in 2005.
Anti-deflation: deposit interest rates need to be lowered. The current 1-year fixed deposit rate is 2.5%, well above the historical low of 1.98%. The high interest rate on deposits will increase savings, which is not conducive to stimulating consumption. From the perspective of anti-deflation, there is a huge downward adjustment in the future of deposit interest rates. However, the current interest rate marketization process is still not over, and deposit interest rates are subject to upward pressure. How to balance interest rate marketization process still needs to be weighed.
The level of deposits has declined, and it needs to be lowered more than three times in the future. From the reaction of banks after the interest rate cut in March, although the deposit interest rate has been raised to 30%, the one-year time deposit is used as an example. The benchmark interest rate is 2.5%, while the four major banks generally rise by 10% to 2.75%. Joint-stock banks generally rose by 20% to around 3%. Only one deposit interest rate of Nanjing Bank rose by 30% to the top, which means that the downward pressure on banks has generally declined after the current deposit interest rate is lowered. The latest rumors of the central bank on the Nanjing Bank's deposits to the top of the window to provide guidance, indicating that the current deposit benchmark interest rate cuts can also reduce bank deposit interest rates. If we use the 2.75% of the four major bank deposit rates as the current average deposit rate, there will still be more than three rate cuts compared to the historical minimum of 1.98%.
4. New employment is facing a test. The interest rate cut is not impossible. The third goal of monetary policy is full employment. Since 2014, all employment indicators have remained stable. The total new employment has exceeded 13 million, far exceeding 10 million. Add employment goals. In addition, from the perspective of supply and demand in the national job market, the ratio of job-seeking in 2014 is around 1.1, indicating that the supply of employment is in short supply, far higher than the level of oversupply below 2001 and below 0.9 in 2008, indicating that the current employment situation is still good. The employment rate can be temporarily fixed, but the employment level is usually a lagging indicator. In 2015, the capacity will enter the tough period, and the new employment will still face a huge test. Therefore, it is not impossible to lower interest rates to promote employment.
5. Financial stability is still a heavy responsibility. There is still room for future interest rate cuts. Housing prices have fallen: the interest rate cut has prevented the bubble from bursting. The last goal of monetary policy is financial stability, and the most important thing in financial stability is the price of various assets, first of all, house prices. In the past, the interest rate cuts in 2008 and 2012 have suffered a continuous decline in house prices, and the background of this round of interest rate cuts is also the fall in house prices. Although the decline in house prices has narrowed, considering the emergence of the turning point of the demographic dividend, it is still an important task for the central bank to prevent systemic financial risks from bursting into the real estate bubble. Therefore, there is still room for future interest rate cuts.
The stock market has not changed interest rates. Historically, interest rate cuts mostly occurred during the stock market downturn, but in the late 1990s, due to the weak economy, the central bank continued to cut interest rates as the stock market continued to rise. It can be seen that the central bank's interest rate cuts are far less concerned about the stock market than house prices. In addition, after the first interest rate cut in November 2014, the stock market skyrocketed. The financial bubble once triggered management attention. However, the stimulus effect of interest rate cuts on the stock market has declined significantly since 2015. It also means that concerns about cutting interest rates will stimulate the financial bubble can be eliminated. .
Currency interest rate: SLF interest rate cap. In mid-2013, the repo rate once soared to more than 10%, causing fears of money shortages. Since 2014, the central bank has capped the repo rate through SLF, including the 5% upper limit of the repo rate in 2014 and the 7% upper limit of the 7-day repo rate. In March 2015, the central bank lowered the overnight repo rate ceiling to 4.5%, and the 7-day repo rate ceiling was lowered to 5.5%, effectively preventing the recurrence of the money shortage.
Currency interest rates have risen sharply, deviating from economic inflation. Although the currency interest rate after 2014 has not lost control, the currency interest rate in the first quarter of 2015 has soared to nearly 5%, which is the highest point in the past two years. At the same time, economic inflation hit a new low, and the currency interest rate completely deviated from the interest rate trend under the Taylor rule.
New hits have pushed up risk-free interest rates. An important reason for the high interest rate of the currency is the high new rate of return. According to the current new rules, almost no stock price has doubled after the IPO, and the online New Year’s rate of return is over 10%. The annualized rate of return also exceeds 8%. At present, the new stability is once a month, and the scale of each frozen fund is rising, from 1 trillion to 2 trillion to 3 trillion, and the impact on the capital is increasing. But with the approach of the IPO registration system, it is difficult to continue to hit new high yields.
The repurchase bidding rate is high, and the loose expectations are unknown. Another important reason for the tight funding is that the central bank’s attitude is unclear. In 2014, the central bank lowered the 14-day repurchase bidding rate four times, from 3.8% to 3.2%, effectively guiding the secondary market R007 to below 3%. Since the central bank restarted the reverse repurchase this year, the bidding rate is high. Even after the interest rate cut, the reverse repurchase bidding rate is only 10bp to 3.75%. The excessive currency interest rate makes the market daunting and it is difficult to effectively pass the loose expectations.
The deposit rate is too high and should be lowered sharply. Another important reason for the high interest rate of the currency is that the deposit reserve ratio is too high. From the comparison with the loan interest rate, the current benchmark interest rate has dropped to a historical low, and the deposit rate is still at the highest point in history. %about. Due to the sharp appreciation of the US dollar and the expected depreciation of the RMB, the domestic foreign exchange account has barely increased in the past six months, so the deposit rate should be lowered sharply.
1. Growth momentum determines the future, capital market feeding innovation, Japan and the United States interest rates are falling, the stock market is a world apart. From a global perspective, whether the United States, Japan or Europe have adopted low interest rate deleveraging, financial and leverage are not successful, the US stock market and economy are booming, while Japan and Europe are struggling. Since the 1980s, also in the context of long-term decline in interest rates, the US Dow has risen from 1,000 points to 18,000 points, while Japan's Nikkei index has fallen from nearly 40,000 points to 18,000 points. Although the bonds are all bull markets, the stock market is very different, which means that the stock market will not continue to benefit from falling interest rates. We believe that the biggest difference between the United States and Japan is economic growth. Japan’s GDP has barely increased in the past 30 years, and the total US GDP has tripled since the 1980s.
Growth momentum determines the future of the economy. The source of economic growth comes from the fact that factor endowments provide growth drivers and provide a basis for corporate profitability. In the past, China had a demographic dividend, a high rate of return on capital, and a low proportion of exports. Therefore, the growth momentum was sufficient, and many large industrial enterprises were born. Nowadays, with the end of the demographic dividend, the traditional growth momentum has been exhausted, so it must shift to new growth drivers such as human capital, innovation and reform.
From bank financing to capital markets. The driving force for future growth comes from innovation, in which the importance of capital markets is irreplaceable. In the past demographic dividend period, due to the high return on capital, the high-cost banking system can provide financing, and the industrial economy can be rapidly developed through credit expansion. With the aging of the population, the return on capital tends to decline, so high-cost credit financing will be difficult to sustain, and must be directed to direct financing in the capital market. Regardless of equity or bonds, its greatest advantage lies in information sharing and low cost. Comparing the financing structure of the United States and Japan, we can find that the United States has always been based on direct financing, and the proportion of direct financing has remained above 80%. Japan has been focusing on indirect financing until 2000, until the direct financing ratio in recent years. More than indirect financing.
Bank financing: fostering traditional industries. If we compare the market value distribution of enterprises in the United States, Japan, and China, we can find that in the traditional industry, Japan is still the well-deserved leader. The market value of Toyota is as high as 230 billion US dollars, more than the sum of the market value of the three American auto companies, and China. There is little difference between the market value of enterprises in the traditional field and the United States. Traditional industries are basically born in an era of indirect financing. As long as banks provide sufficient credit, they will be the leading companies in the industrial era.
Capital Market: Cultivate emerging industries. The leading position in the United States is mainly in emerging industries. The market value of any company such as Google, Apple and Facebook is more than 10 times that of Japanese companies like Sony and Panasonic. China is not so backward in the Internet era. We have Tencent and Baidu. Ali and many other great technology companies. These are all cultivated by the capital market. However, the past contributions of the local capital market have been lacking, and almost no technology companies with a market value of more than 20 billion US dollars have been cultivated.
2. Open equity financing, break the debt just after the direct financing is backward, and the supervision needs to be released. From the current new financing structure in China, the proportion of credit financing still exceeds 60%, while the proportion of trusts related to banks, such as trusts and entrustments, is over 20%, and equity and bond financing accounts for less than 20%. There is huge room for development of direct financing. The main bottleneck in the development of bond market and stock market lies in administrative supervision. For example, enterprises with loss of performance cannot be listed, which leads to a large number of enterprises failing to issue new shares financing. The bond market has a requirement that the scale of public debt issuance cannot exceed 40% of net assets, which also makes many Corporate debt is blocked.
The foundation of equity financing innovation, common prosperity and deregulation. The emerging and great companies in the United States are all nurtured by PE financing. We believe that the deregulation of China's capital market is the general trend. In particular, the liberalization of the registration system means that individual companies have the opportunity to become rich, thus injecting a continuous stream of innovation into the Chinese economy. . In this respect, the development of the New Third Board is the touchstone. In just one year, the market value of listed companies exceeds 600 billion.
Simple administration and decentralization: The number of registered enterprises has increased significantly. Another important sign of the new government's decentralization and decentralization is that the new company law was implemented in 2014, changing the registered capital from the paid-in registration system to the subscription registration system, and relaxing the registration conditions for registered capital, encouraging investment and entrepreneurship. Promote economic development. In 2014, the number of newly-registered enterprises reached 3.5 million, exceeding the total of 1.95 million in 2013. In 2015, the annualized increment was also stable at 3.5 million.
Break the debt rigid redemption. In order for the capital market to effectively guide the allocation of funds, in addition to the liberalization of equity financing, another point is that the rigid debt payment must be broken. Regardless of the current Europe or the past Japan, due to the delay in the redemption, the resources continue to mismatch. An important reason why we just broke through in the past was the large number of retail investors, but now the government has begun to establish a firewall. The latest corporate bond issuance system explicitly introduces the investor classification system to exclude retail investors from venture capital investment. The deposit insurance system will also be established this year and will provide protection for depositors under 500,000 yuan. After the firewall was established, we believe that 2015 is just about to break. For example, the ST Monelun debt currently listed on the exchange will expire in May, and the yield to maturity will be as high as 50%, which is due to the fact that it cannot be traded by ordinary investors after ST, which means it is expected to become the first official this year. Corporate debt for breach of contract.
3. The capital market has huge space, shifting from industry to service industry. China's capital market has huge space. The success of the United States lies in the financial back-feeding economy. From a total perspective, China’s total bond balance at the end of 2014 was about 36 trillion yuan, and the stock market value was about 37 trillion yuan, accounting for 57% and 58% of GDP respectively. At the end of 2013, the US bond balance, stock market value and GDP were respectively 133% and 125%. It can be seen that compared with the United States, China's bond market and stock market have huge room for development.
From industry to service industry. As the return on capital declines, on the one hand, the financing system will shift from banks to capital markets. At the same time, due to rising labor costs, industrial competitiveness will decline, and demand for services will increase, and the economic structure will shift from industry to services. The traditional industry has only two outlets, one is to go out and find new needs abroad. The other is the rest, for example, real estate in the first- and second-tier cities can still have a population inflow, with demand support.
State-owned enterprise reform: the monopoly of the service industry is liberalized. We believe that the core of state-owned enterprise reform is to break the monopoly of the service industry. State-owned enterprises account for more than two-thirds of investment in education, cultural media, health care, finance, transportation, and public utilities, benefiting from the gradual break of monopoly. We have observed a systematic decline in the proportion of state-owned enterprises in the service industry, most notably sports, telecommunications services, radio and television, securities and other financial, technology services. No matter the size of the future enterprises, as long as the service industry has room for development.
From the impact on the economy and the market, this year's policy is going to the Guotai Junan Securities Research Institute, the Guotai Junan Securities Research Institute, March 3-15, the National Conference and the two sessions are the recent investors' attention and focus, through the reports of the Prime Minister and various ministry officials during the two sessions of the National People's Congress. Words can reveal changes in policy orientation and the potential impact on the economy and capital markets.
1. Although it is not irritating, it will be the bottom: look for the balance between steady growth and structural adjustment. Our understanding of the macro-control thinking of the current government is: Although it is not stimulating, it will be the bottom, and strive to smoothly transition to the new growth platform during the growth rate shift period, and find a balance point between stable growth and structural adjustment. We expect the government to continue the macro-control thinking in 2014, and increase the growth rate through infrastructure. The economic growth rate is about 7%, and the whole year is flat.
2. Monetary policy has shifted from directional easing to full easing. Since the first interest rate cut on November 21, 2014, the rate cut has been cut twice, indicating that the 2014 directional easing tool will be replaced by a comprehensive loose tool. It is expected that there will be two interest rate cuts in 2015 and three downgrades.
Although the economic growth rate in 2010-2013 has slowed down and the profitability of enterprises has deteriorated, the growth rate is still relatively high, so the policy is tight. Since 2014, the economic growth rate has fallen below the 8% range, forcing the policy to relax, and the policy has become friendly to the economy and the market. What's more important is that the financial black hole that blocked the financial soft-constrained departments through fiscal and taxation, state-owned enterprises and other reforms created conditions for policy easing.
3. Fiscal policy has shifted from moderate to positive and increased efficiency. As the downward pressure on the economy increases and the growth rate approaches the bottom of the medium and long term, fiscal policy is shifting from a moderate and positive to increase efficiency. It is expected that the fiscal policy will be more relaxed after the two sessions to cope with steady growth and deflation.
4. Real estate shifts from regulation to support. After a lapse of six years, the government’s attitude toward the property market has shifted from “regulation” to “support”, from restraining investment demand to supporting demand improvement and promoting the real estate market to enter a new normal. It is expected that there will be a reserve policy for the stable housing market in the future, such as an interest rate loan policy that encourages the improvement of demand, and lower taxes and fees.
5. The regulatory layer agrees with the reform of the cattle: the development of the stock market to serve the real economy. In the 2015 government work report, the implementation of the stock issuance registration system reform was emphasized to improve direct financing. Chairman Xiao Gang of the China Securities Regulatory Commission agreed that this round of bull market is a reform of the cattle. The Governor of the Central Bank Zhou Xiaochuan believes that the stock market has supported the development of the real economy through financing, and does not believe that the funds entering the stock market are detached.
The central government's comprehensive measures to deepen reforms have stabilized market expectations and are the main driving force for the stock market's rise. Investor confidence has increased significantly, reflecting investors' expectations for the release of the reform and opening dividends. The reform dividend will be the most important to promote the further healthy development of the capital market. Powerful.
6. The reform from the preparation period of the plan to the stage of the hard work period is expected to be reviewed or approved by the 18th Third Central Committee, the Fourth Plenary Session and the 1-10th meeting of the Deep Reform Group. Judicial, fiscal, tax, financial, state-owned enterprises, household registration, land, culture, and ecological environment Major reforms such as sports and sports will be implemented in 2015.
7. Start the trillion-dollar local debt swap: promote the established reform process. During the two sessions of the National People's Congress, the Ministry of Finance approved a replacement of 1 trillion local bonds. Recently, various versions of the matter have been circulating in the market. It is even believed that the central bank will directly purchase and open a large-scale QE in China. We believe that this is an established reform process, not an emergency.
The main body of purchase of new-issued municipal bonds should be commercial banks and other market entities, rather than central banks, more similar to distortion operations, rather than comprehensive large-scale QE. If it is purchased by the central bank, it is the base currency. Considering that as of June 2013, the local debts with repayment obligations were 10.8 trillion. If all were purchased by the central bank, it would undoubtedly be a large-scale QE. We do not think this is the case. More likely, the city investment bonds, loans and trusts held by commercial banks under the approval of the State Council are more similar to the distortions. The end (the US version is short selling long, lowering the long end).
8. Pushing the reform of the registration system: this year's major events of the CSRC. The registration system will be launched in 2015, which is the top priority of the CSRC. It is expected that the registration system will be launched around October, depending on the progress of the Securities Law. It is expected that the final registration system will have new changes and breakthroughs in auditing, pricing and supervision. On the other hand, there will be appropriate rhythm control and certain auditing. It is a gradual reform program, not an unlimited supply solution. .
9. The top-level design plan for the reform of state-owned enterprises was introduced: the elephant danced. The introduction of the top-level design plan for the reform of state-owned enterprises in 2015 will become a major market for the capital market, enhance the vitality of enterprises, improve efficiency, and improve the valuation of A-share listed platforms of state-owned enterprises.
There will be six highlights in the new round of state-owned enterprise reform: 1) The classification of state-owned enterprises may be divided into three categories: the original public welfare protection category, the specific functional category, and the commercial competition category, and the public interest category and the commercial category. Large, more operational; 2) access liberalization is the focus of mixed ownership reform; 3) state-owned enterprise asset securitization and mixed ownership deep chimerism; 4) state-owned assets management from the management, management, management assets to the management of capital; 5) Equity incentives and employee shareholdings are expected to make breakthroughs; 6) Capital markets will be an important force supporting the reform of state-owned enterprises. All provinces have emphasized the improvement of the asset securitization rate of state-owned enterprises. All aspects of the reform involve capital markets. The capital market is the main platform for the current round of mixed ownership reform. Of course, how to prevent the loss of state-owned assets while promoting the reform of state-owned enterprises with mixed ownership, securitization, equity incentives, and employee stock ownership is still a problem to be solved.
10. Interest rate marketization and RMB internationalization: a foothold. It is expected that the deposit insurance system will be introduced in the first half of 2015, and the deposit interest rate ceiling will be released in 2015, and the RMB will be included in the SDR basket at the end of the year. At present, the deposit interest rate is up to 30%. With reference to the marketization experience of the loan interest rate, it is possible to fully release the floating range after the 1-2 interest rate drop.
At present, the central bank is actively promoting the inclusion of the RMB in the SDR basket. In 2015, the International Monetary Fund IMF will conduct a five-year review of the special drawing rights, that is, the SDR currency basket. The internationalization of the RMB has developed rapidly in the past five years. Now the RMB is the second largest trade finance currency in the world, the sixth largest trading currency, and many national and regional monetary authorities also use the RMB as the reserve currency. The Hope Fund (IMF) can fully consider the progress of the internationalization of the RMB, so that the RMB can become the basket currency of the SDR in the visible and not far future.

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