Chen Qingtai, chairman of the China Electric Vehicle Hundred People's Association, pointed out that the current difficulties in the industrialization of electric vehicles have determined the role of the government in the development of electric vehicles at this stage. The government is actually the first driving force. The government's "visible hand", how to effectively cooperate with the market "invisible hand", constitutes a good industrial ecology, and has become a topic that needs to be paid attention to and discussed at present.
Orderly and relaxed market access The intersection of automotive technology and informationization, intelligence, and energy revolution has formed a powerful innovation platform. Because it provides a lot of imagination and opportunities for many industries, this platform attracts many entrepreneurs, innovators and entrepreneurs to take risks despite the great uncertainty and risks. The emergence of Tesla and the emergence of Google's driverless cars proves that new entrants will bring new thinking, which is an indispensable factor in promoting industrial upgrading and success.
The industry believes that the government should welcome new entrants in the automotive and non-automotive industries to participate in the competition, and allow them to explore again and again in the competition. The electrification of automotive power technology has provided the Chinese automotive industry with a chance to catch up with it for a hundred years. Nowadays, the technology industry chain and business model of China's electric vehicles are in the process of maturity. The government needs to accelerate industrial innovation and allow trial and error.
Experts say that entrepreneurs should be given the opportunity. These entrepreneurs have accelerated the exploration process with their own efforts, including product technology, business models, financing models, etc., which may have a new spark in trial and error. Therefore, in the field of electric vehicles, market guidance and screening should be brought into play. Orders and greater efforts should be made to relax market access, allowing investors to make decisions on their own and at their own risk, while the government should shift to an innovation-driven regulatory approach. A good platform that bears the role of the gatekeeper.
Exploring potential market segments The most difficult bottleneck to enter the industrialization phase is market exports. The replacement of mainstream fuel vehicles by electric vehicles has to go through a long process. How to make electric vehicles through a long incubation period without abortion? Experts believe that opening market exports in a timely manner is more important than anything else.
An important policy idea is: While insisting on the development of the mainstream market of pure electric vehicles, encourage and support enterprises to find out the market segments in which the current technology maturity can be well supported and widely accepted, and let the electric vehicle technology support the policy. The company relies mainly on the power of the market to operate and develop while profitable.
At present, some of the electric vehicles replace the intermediate-level mainstream fuel vehicles. They also face two major obstacles: first, the price is high and the energy ratio is low, resulting in low cruising range. Second, the charging facilities are difficult to meet in the short term, which makes the pure electric vehicles seem uneconomical at present. Convenient and not at ease. But this does not mean that it is the same in all market segments.
From the product point of view, the high-end car represented by Tesla has become the new favorite of the market in the second car consumer who is not sensitive to price and pursues high-end, fashion and environmental protection. Plug-in or extended-range electric vehicles are accepted by some consumers because they better balance the purchase price, the cost of use, the pure electric mileage and the contradiction of the charging device. Small-scale short-distance and low-speed practical electric vehicles are shining in some small and medium-sized cities and urban and rural areas in China. Last year's market sales were estimated to be 300,000 to 400,000. Some experts said that if the policy is right, these markets will soon develop into a market of one million or even ten million. If there is such a big market, there may be a pure electric vehicle industrialization approach with Chinese characteristics.
From the perspective of business model, Beijing has the “Electric Beijing Partner Program†and Hangzhou has “Micro-Busâ€. The business model of time-sharing, renting and renting, and rent-using is represented by these. There are already 1,200 vehicles in operation in Hangzhou, and cities such as Chengdu and Wuhan are expected to follow up. In the case of consumers still have various doubts, the problem of high car price is solved by renting and buying. It only solves the consumer's concern about charging regardless of charging, and meets the requirements of cruising range; adopts stereo garage parking and automatic Charging solves the problem of parking and charging, and the low cost of use can satisfy the self-driving preference. It is a business model that is very promising to open the market at this stage.
However, after all, there is a great deal of uncertainty in the development of the market. Therefore, in supporting the development of electric vehicles, the government should maintain technology neutrality, encourage enterprises to explore market demand, open up market segments, and create conditions for the formation of new markets. Some standards and rules are revised on the basis of careful research.
Breaking local protection and barriers Some local electric protection and market barriers in pilot cities for electric vehicles have been around for a long time. The closer to industrialization, the more obvious this trend is.
Some cities set the local access list for electric vehicles and implement targeted “suppressionâ€; some cities require that the city's sales must set up factories in the city; some force the use of locally produced batteries; some require local charging The pile can only be made by one city... The reality is that in the implementation of the “policy†of these cities, the competition of other cities is competing, and this practice of violating the laws of the market has seriously hit the industry, leading to the initial stage of electric vehicle industrialization. The smaller size has been reduced.
According to industry insiders, electric vehicles, batteries, charging piles, etc. are all industries with obvious scale effects. Only through competition can the superiors stand out. An over-monopolized market structure will result in a competitive enterprise unable to achieve good development, while a weak enterprise will gradually lose its competitiveness by relying on the protection of the government. The final outcome can be described as both losses. This "self-harm" policy cannot cultivate the competitiveness of China's electric vehicle industry, and will certainly delay the progress of the industry.
The policy portfolio is stable and expects the automobile industry chain to be long. The major changes in its power technology not only involve major adjustments in the auto industry itself, but also involve the development and utilization of national energy resources, production structure adjustment, infrastructure transformation and construction, and transformation of transportation modes. The participation and investment of government departments and many industries and related companies has a long period of time. Therefore, experts believe that the government must give the whole society a long-term stable policy expectation, so that electric vehicles can be truly incorporated into the long-term development strategy of related industries and enterprises.
However, some policies that only have a three-year five-year period tend to have a negative impact. Not only will the policy convergence period produce large market fluctuations, but more importantly, it will be difficult to guide consumers' long-term consumption behaviors. The company "foot on two boats" is ready to quit.
The zero-emission vehicle regulations introduced by California in the United States have important implications for us. The basic principle is that the government can announce the proportion of zero-emission vehicles in the new car in the next five, ten or even twenty years. If the total amount of cars sold by the manufacturers is not up to the market, they must buy or accept government fines from other companies. This policy idea is worth learning from: First, this is a cross-subsidization between high emissions or zero emissions or low emissions, consistent with the carbon trading principles, more rational than financial subsidies; second, it can reduce fiscal pressure Third, to release the government's long-term commitment to motorization of the car, can give the market including infrastructure construction with stable expectations; Fourth, for enterprises, this is a carrot and stick reflects There are pressures and pressures, and there is a strong incentive and deterrent effect to promote cooperation between manufacturers and the government to achieve the goals. With the realization of the goals, the government can also withdraw smoothly.
Therefore, in the future, the policy mix of China's electric vehicle industrialization should be fully implemented: First, it must generate long-term expectations and guide the long-term strategy of related industries and enterprises; second, promote policies should leverage the market to explore and release market potential; Third, government policies should have the role of stimulating and reciprocating two-way, without distorting the market and not weakening competition.
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