China's benzene industry still has the possibility of continued gloomy
Domestic Sinopec and PetroChina's two major oil group benzene listing prices were lowered again by 400 yuan (ton price, the same below) and dropped to 7700 to 7800 yuan. The price adjustment was the third time since May. Another international crude oil WTI has fallen to 83.23 US dollars / barrel, a decrease of 8.2% within two days, the decline increased, the speeding up, a new low. International Pure Benzene On June 4th, South Korea closed down 88 US dollars, falling to 961 US dollars, a 12% weekly decline, the domestic market offer price was fully loosened, the transaction was overcast. Market participants see an increase in the status quo. In the absence of buying, related alternatives and the entire industry chain market are all lower.
This is the deepest drop in oil benzene this year, and the longest duration, which triggered the domino effect of the benzene industry chain. And according to industry estimates, it is not ruled out that there is a possibility of continued gloomy decline in petroleum benzene. There is still room for further declines in the industry chain.
Feedback from the market's frontline shows that the decline in petro-benzene prices and continued declines are expected to affect, apart from the expected short-term rebound of nitrochlorobenzenes affected by the “May 27†explosion accidents in Fujian Bayi Chemical, and the major downstream consumer products of benzene over the weekend. Styrene, aniline, bisphenol A, phenol, and cyclohexanone dropped by 12%, 4%, 4.5%, 10%, and 5.1% respectively. The proportion of styrene and aniline that accounted for more than 60% of domestic petroleum benzene consumption has fallen below this year's low.
The degree of support for petroleum benzene related products also continued to decline. Hydrogenated benzene as a major substitute for petroleum benzene, due to the continued negative impact of maleic anhydride, aniline, and cyclohexanone, coupled with the sudden drop in the price of petroleum benzene, the price in some regions fell below 7500 yuan, and the low-end price even reached 7200. Yuan, which fell by 8.5% in June. Even the coking benzene market, which has been firm due to production constraints, continues to be bearish due to downstream consumption reductions. Affected by petroleum benzene and hydrogenated benzene, some coking benzene companies stopped production and the mainstream transaction price fell below 7,200 yuan. The company has entered a loss state.
Coupled with the sharp drop in the price of crude oil, the market support for petroleum benzene has declined, playing a negative role in the market outlook. In particular, the attitude of traders on the entire industry chain is gradually intensifying. The reduction of liquidity and waiting for further price reductions have become the industry's general mentality.
The downturn in the macroeconomic situation has adversely affected the recovery of benzene in the oil market. In the international market, if Greece’s worries about its exit from the euro area continue to rise, it will inevitably have a negative impact on the economy and finance of the euro zone countries. Domestically, analysts believe that China needs to guard against the negative impact of responding to the European debt crisis. China's external financing environment will inevitably be unfavorable. In addition, on May 29th, the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China and Roland Berger Management Consulting Co., Ltd. jointly released the “China Chamber of Commerce and Business Confidence Survey 2012,†and 22% of the surveyed EU companies stated that they are considering shifting their investment to markets outside China. This will be a negative news for the entire chemical industry.
However, at present, the coking benzene production enterprises are basically struggling at the cost, and some companies have already stopped production due to losses, which will cause the market availability to continue to decline, and will be replaced by petroleum benzene. According to incomplete statistics, it is estimated that the domestic production of benzene in June will fall by more than 16,000 tons in May, and the Asian market will also reduce the supply by about 30,000 tons, which will form a certain foundation for the benzene market. Under this background, the continuous declining trend of petroleum benzene and the downstream industrial chain is expected to be eased somewhat, and there will be no significant diving phenomenon for the time being.
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