Zhao Xuegui comprehensively analyzes the new "Auto Industry Development Policy"
The new “policy†revise the contents of many planned economy in the old industrial policy and is inconsistent with the WTO rules, aiming at promoting the structural adjustment and upgrading of the automobile industry and comprehensively improving the international competitiveness of the automobile industry. June 1, National Development and Reform Commission ("Development and Reform Commission") formally introduced the "Auto Industry Development Policy" (referred to as the new "Policy"). Compared to the “Auto Industry Industrial Policy†formulated in 1994, the new “Policy†modifies the content of many planned economy in the old industrial policy and is inconsistent with the WTO rules, aiming at promoting the structural adjustment and upgrading of the automobile industry and comprehensively improving the automobile industry. International competitiveness will certainly have a profound and significant impact on the development of China's auto industry. The new "Policy" to promote the status of the automotive industry clearly stated that the policy objective of the domestic automotive industry in recent years is: China's auto industry should develop into a pillar industry of the national economy in 2010. By then, China will become the world's major automobile manufacturing country, and products will satisfy most domestic Demand and bulk access to the international market. We believe that the old version of the industry policy added "China has become the world's major automobile manufacturing country," and once again emphasized the positioning of the automobile "national economic pillar industry", and conveyed the government's clear attitude in supporting the development of the automobile industry. Promoting industrial restructuring In view of the new "policy" detailed rules, the intention of restricting new entrants and increasing industry concentration is obvious, and it is clear that such industrial restructuring can be promoted in three ways. Encourage auto companies to establish large-scale enterprise groups in a restructured manner. The new "policy" for the first time clarified the definition of "large-scale automotive companies", that is, automotive enterprise groups that meet the characteristics of "unified planning, independent product development, independent product branding and branding, and integrated sales management system, and their core corporate The domestic market share of automotive products produced by its wholly owned subsidiaries, holding companies, and Sino-foreign joint ventures is more than 15%, or the annual sales revenue of auto vehicles will exceed 15% of the total vehicle sales revenue of the whole industry. Big business group. The new "policy" implies that large-scale automobile companies and other small-scale enterprises, among which long-term development plans do not need to be reported to the State Council for approval, can be implemented as long as the NDRC approves it; at the same time, it is emphasized that the state encourages large-scale auto enterprise groups to step into the top 500 global companies. We have reviewed the sales of 13 key state-owned auto companies from January to April. If we measure the market's market share by 15%, only SAIC and FAW can be considered large-scale auto companies. Even the east wind is not considered. According to the sales revenue statistics, we speculate that Dongfeng Windo could not be squeezed into the 15% fate and death line, and it also relies on the NDRC's judgment of Dongfeng Yueda and other enterprises as the core enterprise of Dongfeng. Considering Dongfeng’s important position in the Chinese auto industry, we think the NDRC tends to think that Dongfeng is a “big business groupâ€. We expect that in the short term, under the new “Policy†framework, the market structure dominated by the three major domestic groups will remain unchanged; in the medium to long term, the introduction of the bottom line of 15% will guide the merger and reorganization of second-rate auto companies and is expected to promote “ Strong alliance." Complementary advantages, resource sharing and cooperation form a corporate alliance. The new "policy" has no clear definition of corporate alliances. It only generally states that "the state encourages corporate alliances to form economic entities linked by assets as soon as possible. We speculate that this is because at present China does not have the legal definition of "corporate alliance" (for us Looking at the "6+3" multinational giants' equity structure, corporate alliances have a clear definition that they must actually hold each other's shares or give each other a shareholding quota.) In addition, we have noticed an important detail that has recently become widespread. The "10% bottom line" (that is, if the corporate alliance with a domestic market share of more than 10%, its cooperative development plan is approved by the company after the approval of the National Development and Reform Commission) is not included in the final draft of the new "Policy". Establish an exit mechanism for auto and motorcycle industries and limit auto investment overheating.The new “policy†restricts auto investment overheating mainly through two aspects: First, raise the threshold for auto investment under the new filing and approval system (formerly the approval system ), The state has mainly increased the investment standards for new-built auto projects: The total project investment must not be less than 2 billion yuan The self-owned capital shall not be less than 800 million yuan, and a product research and development institution shall be established, and the investment shall not be less than 500 million yuan, and a higher starting point shall be stipulated for the initial investment scale of heavy-duty trucks and passenger car projects; The investment projects of production vehicles and heavy-duty truck manufacturers should include the production of engines for the entire vehicle (the starting point for investment in engine projects is also relatively high.) II. Establishing an exit mechanism for vehicle and motorcycle industries: Failure to maintain normal production and operation Such production enterprises shall implement special public notices, and shall not transfer the qualifications of automobiles and motorcycles to non-automobile and motorcycle manufacturing enterprises and individuals. The state encourages such enterprises to transfer special automobiles, auto parts or other assets of auto vehicles to carry out assets. We expect that after the implementation of the new “Policyâ€, it will be difficult for peripheral industries such as home appliances, mobile phones and alcoholic beverages to enter the auto industry, and events like the acquisition of Yaxing by Greencool can hardly repeat itself. Compared with the biggest changes in the previous discussion paper, the “vehicle consumption policy†originally planned to be released separately These two industrial policies were merged and introduced, and the content of consumer policies absorbed the essence of the “Consumption and Price Policy†in Chapter X of the Automotive Industry Policy of 1994. The new “Policy†clearly stipulates: to guide automobile consumers to purchase and use low energy consumption and low pollution. For cars, small displacement, new energy, and new power automobiles, all restrictions and additional conditions that do not meet the requirements of national laws and regulations and the requirements of the policies in the purchase, use, and disposal of automobiles should be amended or cancelled. We believe that Large- and medium-sized cities will cancel the “local policy†for micro-vehicles on the road and collect camera fees. It is the first time that auto companies are encouraged to independently develop new “policies†that clearly define their own forms of development and that they can use self-developed, joint-development, and commissioned development. And other forms of support; and give clear support to independent development from three aspects: First, to provide tax support for research and development activities in line with national technology policies; Second, for independent development and production scientific research facilities that meet the state's taxation requirements for the promotion of technological progress of enterprises. Construction investment can be listed before income tax. In previous discussion papers, foreign-funded disputes about "China's domestic auto companies owning self-owned products to reach 50% of domestic auto sales in 2010" were deleted. We believe that the technology development fee for domestic auto companies will show a significant upward trend! It is expected that in the next few years, as a result of the increase in independent research and development fees and the transfer of technology transfer fees received from foreign countries, the proportion of domestic automotive technology development fees to sales revenue will also increase from 0.5% to 3% to 5% of the international average. The “Shanghai GM†model of mergers and acquisitions defaulted to foreign mergers and acquisitions. The new “Policy†continued to insist on “50%†of the stock-to-bottom ratio (ie, the ratio of China’s shares of the joint-venture manufacturing companies such as whole vehicles must not be less than 50%); When a company’s automobile, special-purpose vehicle, agricultural transport vehicle and motorcycle joint-stock company sells legal person shares externally, one of the Chinese legal persons must be relatively controlled and larger than the sum of the foreign-funded legal person shares, and it is clear that the same foreign company can establish two domestic companies. (Including two companies.) The following “joint enterprises†of the same type of joint-venture vehicle products, namely the “same-kind enterprise†regulations, can be classified into passenger cars, commercial vehicles, and motorcycles. It is worth emphasizing that the new “policy†A "policy gap" has been set aside, stipulating that "if joint ventures with Chinese partners, mergers and acquisitions with other domestic automobile manufacturers are not limited to the establishment of at most two joint ventures." We have noticed that U.S. GM has adopted a clear "1 plus 1" Strategy - Only SAIC Group is selected as the only Chinese partner, and Shanghai GM is positioned as the flagship of the integrated Chinese market through Shanghai After completing the integration of Daewoo Yantai Body Works, Jinbei General Motors, and Shandong Daewoo Engine (Shanghai GM holds 50% of the three production bases), we believe that its essence is that US General Motors effectively evades control through its controlling joint ventures. "A foreign company cannot establish more than two domestic joint ventures that produce the same model product" policy restriction, Shanghai GM reorganization model gets policy acquisitively. Promote an important change in the auto manufacturer's local purchasing older version, the new "policy" use " The vehicle recognizes the "replacement with localization" requirement of 40% and stipulates that "taxes will be imposed on vehicle products that constitute the characteristics of the vehicle" at the full vehicle tax rate; and points out that the scope of certification for "whole vehicle characteristics" is the engine assembly and the vehicle body ( Cab) assembly, transmission assembly, drive axle assembly, non-drive axle assembly, frame assembly, steering system, braking system (including ABS), air conditioning system. We believe that as a cancellation of the "localization" policy After the compensation for auto parts companies, the vehicle tax rate for KD projects will force more automakers to choose domestic Production and procurement of spare parts Focusing on coordinated development with related industries New policy emphasizes that the automobile industry must combine the requirements of national energy structure adjustment strategies and emission standards, promote the industrialization of energy-saving and environmentally friendly small-displacement vehicles, and focus on the development of hybrid vehicle technology and sedan diesel Engine technology; improving fuel economy... We believe that from the new “Policy†rules and the interpretation of the new “Policy†by the officials of the National Development and Reform Commission, the state has taken note of the externalities of the car’s development: as the number of car ownership keeps increasing. Three major social issues such as energy shortages, environmental pollution, and transportation issues are also becoming increasingly apparent. The negative impact of the development of the automobile industry on the social environment cannot be overlooked; these problems are left unchecked and will eventually affect the car relative to internal issues such as car recalls. The development of the industry has caused fatal constraints.
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