On January 6th, Xu Changming, director of the Information and Resource Department of the National Information Center, made a foresight on the prospects of China's auto market in 2015 when he attended the “2015 China Auto Phoenix Forumâ€: “Because the purchase of autos in Shenzhen was driven and triggered Certain advance purchases, once other cities follow up, this year's auto market growth is expected to reach 14%."
"China's auto market has entered a normal growth stage, according to international experience and the growth curve of the number of car ownership: from 2009 to 2024, the average growth rate of the Chinese auto market is 8-10%." Xu Changming analyzed.
According to the National Information Center data, the total growth rate of passenger cars in 2011, 2012 and 2013 was 8.9%, 6.8% and 18.1% respectively. In January-November 2014, the growth rate of the auto market was 11.6%, basically meeting the growth forecast at the beginning of the year, and once again verifying the growth trajectory of the “second phase of the auto ownership of thousands of peopleâ€.
Xu Changming believes that from the three factors of automobile market growth, namely, automobile development law, policy environment and economic analysis, the automobile market is still improving overall in 2015. Moreover, the potential growth rate of the auto market in 2015 will continue to remain at around 13%~14%. The Chinese auto market is in a period of steady and rapid development. From the analysis of the general development of automobiles, the so-called “stable development period†will last for about ten years. The average annual growth rate is around 20%. Combined with China's specific national conditions, the passenger vehicle market will grow at an average annual rate of about 10% in the next ten years, roughly equivalent to 1.5 times the GDP rate.
Throughout history, Japan has completed an average annual growth rate of 22% in the auto market in eight years. Due to the relatively large income gap in China, the average annual growth rate of 20% takes longer. Since 2009, after the eastern coastal areas, the car ownership in Anhui, Jiangxi, Hunan, Hubei and other central regions has grown very fast. In the next three to four years, the purchasing power of the western region will gradually be released.
National Information Center analysis data pointed out that in the 15 years from 2009 to 2024, the average growth rate of Chinese automobile sales was around 13%~15%. However, in 2009 and 2010, the average growth rate exceeded the expected growth due to the demand for blowout caused by policy stimulus. The rates reached 52% and 37% respectively, far exceeding the average growth rate.
Due to the current restrictions on purchases, the potential growth rate of passenger cars in China will gradually stabilize until 2018, but it is expected to grow by more than 10% every year. At the same time, based on China's total population of 1.5 billion in the future, the saturation value of automobile sales in the Chinese market is 66.74 million.
The release of consumption brought about by policy restrictions has certain specialities. In 2011, the number of passenger cars in Tianjin was 96, and it did not enter the top ten cities where thousands of people were in possession. Even so, Tianjin has adopted a purchase restriction policy.
Among the top ten cities with thousands of people, except Shenzhen has implemented the purchase restriction policy, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Chengdu are all rumors of restricted purchases in 2013. Although there are no rumors in cities such as Suzhou and Ningbo, considering the urban population density and Tianjin Similar, so it is not excluded and limited.
Once the purchase restriction is expected to spread, panic buying in 2015 will still exist in some cities. In addition to the impact of the policy level, Xu Changming said that in 2015 China will usher in the peak of consumer turnover.
"In order to cope with the arrival of the auto market, we need to match the full value chain, strengthen the marketing strategy and channels and strategies; we must have a targeted layout to avoid the deterioration of the relationship between manufacturers." Xu Changming said.
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