In August, the domestic chemical product market as a whole was operating steadily, and the price of the product steadily increased slightly.
According to the monitoring of the chemical products market in 36 large and medium-sized cities throughout the country, the average price of low-density polyethylene (film 1F7B) was 11,602 yuan (ton price, the same below), which was a 0.8% increase from the previous month and a decrease of 4.76% year-on-year; (Wire drawing 2401) The average price was 11,170 yuan, up 1.99% month on month and up 10.68% year-on-year; the average price of polyvinyl chloride (suspension) was 7,534 yuan, up 1.58% month on month and down 14.19% year on year. The average price of polyester chips (particles) was 10,941 yuan, which was 0.35% higher than the previous period and 5.82% year-on-year; the average price of ethanol (fuel ethanol) was 4,663 yuan, 0.42% lower than the previous month and 8.50 percent year-on-year. The average price of rubber (domestic natural 1# rubber) was 15,103 yuan, up 2.69% month-on-month, and up 9.83% year-on-year; the average price of rubber (synthetic butadiene rubber) was 14,901 yuan, up 2.21% month-on-month. , an increase of 16.19% over the same period of last year; the average price of sulfuric acid (98% acid) was 705 yuan, up 0.75 percent over the previous period and up 9.06% year-on-year; the average price of soda ash (industrial alkali, content ≥ 98.5%) was 1620 Yuan, a month-on-month decrease of 0.11%, a year-on-year increase of 14.37% Caustic soda (caustic content of 30% to 40%) the average price of 666 dollars, a decline of 2.70%, 3.34% rose.
In August, the overall stable and slightly rising prices of domestic chemical products mainly include the following aspects:
First, rising oil prices are the main reason behind the rise in prices of petrochemical products. In August, under the influence of factors such as tight oil supply, hurricanes affecting US oil production, and speculative funds borrowing from the devaluation of the Saudi king, oil prices in the international market rose sharply. The price of New York WTI crude oil futures broke through 70 US dollars per barrel. The highest record; the average monthly price of 65 US dollars / barrel, up 10.17% over July, the single largest increase in the past three years. The rise in the price of petroleum caused the price of raw materials for petrochemical products to rise, thus supporting the price of petrochemical products.
Second, the growth of downstream demand has driven up the price of some chemical products. In the second half of the year, the production of downstream products in the chemical market increased, which increased the demand for some chemical raw materials. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in July, the domestic output of plastic products was 1.884 million tons, an increase of 15.6% year-on-year, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from the previous month; and the output of rubber tires was 26.625 million pieces, up from the same period of last year. The growth rate was 35.6%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the previous month. The output of chemical fiber was 1.403 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 22.9%, an increase of 11.7 percentage points from the previous month. The growth of downstream product demand has played a certain role in pulling prices of chemical products.
Third, prices of individual chemical products have fallen due to price drops, and recent corrections have occurred. The price of PVC continued to fall from November last year, from the highest of 9,106 yuan to the lowest of 7,390 yuan this year. Although it is not the lowest price in recent years, its price has been relatively low compared with other chemical products, especially petrochemical products. Low. Therefore, starting from July, PVC prices began to callback.
In addition, the rise in chemical products in the international market has also contributed to the increase in prices in the domestic market to some extent. It is expected that prices of chemical products will continue to operate at a high level for a period of time to come.
First, the high oil price operation will continue to affect the prices of chemical products. Under the operation of speculative funds, the international oil market is unlikely to have a significant drop in prices, and it may still remain above US$60 per barrel. Therefore, the cost factors supporting the high price of chemical products still exist, so that the prices of chemical products will not drop significantly in the short term.
Second, the continued rapid development of the domestic economy will keep chemical products at higher prices. In the second half of the year, the number of domestic factors that promote economic and market demand growth has increased. The sales rate of industrial products in July was 98.65%, an increase of 0.16 percentage points year-on-year and an increase of 0.88 percentage points from the previous month. From January to July, industrial enterprises above designated size achieved a profit of 742.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the first half of the year; losses of loss-making enterprises decreased by 3.8 percentage points from the first half of the year. In short, the better domestic economic situation in the second half of the year will benefit the development of the chemical product market, and product prices will remain at a relatively high level.
Third, domestic petrochemical companies will continue to work hard to keep petrochemical prices high. At present, most petrochemical enterprises in China are integrated in the refining and chemical industry. Therefore, petrochemical companies will strive to keep the price of chemical products such as polyethylene, polypropylene, and polyester chips under the circumstance that the price of steam diesel oil is controlled and the refining business cannot be profitable. At a relatively high level, the chemical business can be made profitable to offset the loss of the refining business.
However, at the same time, it should also be noted that as petrochemical companies adjust their product mix for profit, less refined oil production and more production of chemical products will increase the supply of domestic petrochemical products in the coming period, and some products may experience oversupply.
Therefore, it is expected that prices of chemical products will operate at a high level for a period of time in the future, but there will be no significant increase, and the overall stability will dominate.
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