The fuel tax reform boots landed, and all circles of controversy and speculation fell down. Yesterday, PetroChina and Sinopec opened higher, and the auto sector went all the way. Many brokerages believe that heavy trucks and small-displacement vehicles will be the biggest direct beneficiaries of this policy. The correspondingly optimistic stockholders, Anchuang, China National Heavy Duty Truck, and CNG. Firewood power limit daily. From the flow of funds in the last week, it can be seen that hot money is unusually active. Funds and other major institutions rarely enter the market. Among them, Dongan Power has zero holdings, and the list of top ten outstanding stocks in the three quarterly reports does not To the fund and other main bodies.
Sinopec Sinopec is not affected
Before the reform of the fuel tax was introduced, two heavyweights, PetroChina and Sinopec, once became the focus of attention. After the fuel tax reform boots were landed, the industry almost agreed that this has little effect on the two major groups. "PetroChina and Sinopec are mainly affected by the refined oil pricing mechanism. The fuel tax reform will only change the tax collection method." Yesterday, Li Dazhao, head of the British Great Securities Research Institute, said in an analysis. Analyst Li Guohong of Galaxy Securities analyzed that: “The new reform of the fuel tax will affect the neutrality.†Because the fuel tax will be seized and paid by Sinopec and PetroChina, the two groups will play the role of “intermediate stationâ€. Cing Dingkun, analyst of CIC Securities Chemical Industry, analyzed that: after the adjustment, the price of refining of the two major companies is still higher than that of foreign countries by about RMB 1,000/ton. The main factor constraining the performance of the petrochemical refining sector is whether it can guarantee long-term stability through a market-based pricing mechanism. profit.
Heavy trucks and small-displacement vehicles benefit the most
Analysts from all walks of life yesterday put the focus of this fuel tax reform on the automotive sector, and believe that commercial vehicles with medium- and small-displacement vehicles in heavy trucks and passenger cars will benefit the most. “After our calculation, a typical heavy truck user, after the program reform, if the freight rate, traffic volume, etc. do not change, one year can increase net profit 60,000 -7 million, an increase of more than 50%." GF Securities Li Weiqing, an automotive industry researcher, said in an interview yesterday that “road maintenance fees account for a very large proportion of the cost of heavy trucks.â€
Great Wall Securities analyst Lu Lei also has the same judgment, which yesterday said: "According to the comparison of the road maintenance fee and the annual oil fee for each model of commercial vehicles, we find that the heavy truck industry has the highest ratio of road maintenance fees to the annual oil fee, and the estimated fuel tax. After the launch, the total cost of the annual heavy-duty truck with a 15-ton payload was reduced by about 15%."
In the car version yesterday, the first place in the daily limit was Dongan Power. After 5 minutes of opening, it immediately pulled the daily limit. After a short period of time, it was closed at the daily limit until it closed. "There are two factors in Dongan Power's daily limit. One is that after the integration of Air China Airlines and its two subsidiaries into China Aviation Group, Dongan Power is its subsidiary, which has a follow-up concept of automotive integration. In addition, it mainly produces micro-car engines, etc. It is fuel oil. Tax reform is the main beneficiary company.†Lu Lei said in this analysis that after the introduction of fuel tax, the cost of passenger vehicles for small- and medium-displacement vehicles was the largest, which was approximately 7.85%.
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Hot money stirs Dongan Power
Whether or not there is a speculative component of the daily limit, he analyzed that from a theoretical perspective, small-displacement cars directly benefit, but in reality this may not be the case. First of all, the quality of domestic small-displacement cars cannot be compared with that of foreign countries, and consumer purchasing power is very low. “In addition, reducing the tax by more than one thousand yuan alone will hardly have a significant effect on the entire industry.†He analyzed, “The sales volume of the industry is very severe, and the downside speed is getting faster and faster. I have looked at the end markets for car sales. There are more people selling cars than those who buy cars."
He therefore judged that the growth rate of the auto industry will be only about 4% next year, and it may also be a negative growth. “Unless the government introduces policies such as exempting parking fees for small-displacement cars, the entire auto industry will oscillate between policy and demand.†He analyzed that “small-displacement cars do not have any advantage.â€
The upward flow of funds from Dongan can also be seen as obvious signs of speculation in hot money. Trading was extremely active last week. Last Thursday, a total of 62 securities dealers sold their net sales of 9.46 million yuan. Funds and other major institutions did not enter the market last week. . The sales department of Guotai Junan Shanghai Jiangsu Road, which has a lot of hot money, ranked first in the transaction volume, sold 10.54 million yuan, bought 9.16 million yuan, and bought and sold the largest single day, both exceeding 5 million. The two sales offices that followed were Fortune Securities Wenzhou Station Avenue Sales Department and Huatai Securities Suzhou Heshan Road Sales Department, with the largest one-day purchase and sales exceeding 3 million. So far, the proportion of positions held by the Dongan Power Agency has remained zero.
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