The rapid development of China's automobile and tire industry has stimulated and stimulated the rapid growth of rubber chemicals production. At the same time, with the rising rate of radial tires in the country, higher demands are placed on the quantity and quality of rubber additives.
According to statistics, in 2004 almost all varieties of rubber additives in China showed rapid growth. Among them, the anti-aging agent RD was 21,800 tons, an average annual increase of 26.5% in the past two years; anti-aging agent 4010NA was 15,200 tons, an increase of 18.5%; anti-aging agent 4020 was 18,800 tons, an increase 43%; Accelerator M was 36,100 tons, an increase of 42.4%; Accelerator NS was 7,150 tons, an increase of 42.9%; Accelerator CBS was 18,200 tons, an increase of 9.7%.
In 2004, the total output of rubber antioxidants reached 80,700 tons, an increase of 25.9% over the previous year; rubber accelerators were 106,200 tons, an increase of 31.5%; processing aids were 63,300 tons, an increase 42.5%. The total growth rate of rubber chemicals is about 30%. From the second half of 2004 to the first quarter of 2005, the economic performance of almost all rubber auxiliaries in the country was good, and the leading cultivars showed a situation of oversupplied supply. The prices of varieties all rose, and many varieties rose by 30% to 40%. Due to promising domestic production and consumption prospects, it is expected that during the period from 2005 to 2007, China will set off a new round of expansion of rubber chemicals. At present, almost all major domestic manufacturers are planning or building new installations. Variety. It is estimated that in the next 2 to 3 years, the domestic antioxidant RD will increase the annual production capacity by 25,000 tons, the antioxidant 4020 will increase the annual production capacity by 30,000 tons, and the accelerator M will increase the annual production capacity by 18,000 tons. The promoter NS will add an annual production capacity of 12,000 tons, and the tackifier resin will add an annual production capacity of 15,000 tons. The rubber chemicals industry will increase its annual production capacity from 130,000 to 150,000 tons in the next 2 to 3 years. By the end of 2007, it is expected that the total annual production capacity of rubber chemicals in China will double over that in 2002.
Due to the rapid expansion of production, there was a shortage of raw material supply in some local regions in 2004. At the same time, due to the sharp increase in crude oil prices, almost all the raw materials for rubber chemicals have increased significantly, and the price of main raw material aniline has risen by more than 100%. With the advent of a new wave of expansion of rubber chemicals in China from 2005 to 2007, many manufacturers are not concerned with downstream demand but with raw material supply. At the same time, the rapid development of the rubber chemicals industry has brought rare opportunities for raw material production and development.
According to the analysis, the production trend of rubber auxiliaries is increasingly focused on leading varieties with excellent performance and good environmental performance, such as accelerators M, CBS, NS and antioxidants RD, 4010NA, 4020 and so on. The main raw materials of these varieties are aniline, cyclohexylamine, tert-butylamine, p-aminodiphenylamine, methyl isobutyl ketone, etc. In addition, a certain amount of morpholine, diphenylamine, dimethylamine, diethylamine and dibutylamine are also available. Demand. In 2004, the amount of raw materials consumed by domestic rubber chemicals was: 80,000 tons of aniline, 10,500 tons of cyclohexylamine, 1,150 tons of dicyclohexylamine, 2,900 tons of tert-butylamine, 3,200 tons of morpholine, and 26,000 tons of p-aminodiphenylamine. Tons, 2,580 tons of diphenylamine, 9,500 tons of methyl isobutyl ketone, 5,500 tons of dimethylamine, 680 tons of diethylamine, and 400 tons of di-n-butylamine.
With the rapid increase in the production capacity of rubber auxiliaries, the demand for raw materials has increased. Among them, the growth rate of demand for many major raw materials is relatively high. In particular, currently, domestic tert-butylamine and methyl isobutyl ketone are in short supply, and most or all of them rely on imports. This brings a rare opportunity for the domestic production of raw rubber additives. In the coming years, with the rapid growth in the production capacity of rubber auxiliaries and the further adjustment of product mix, some raw materials will also show rapid growth. In addition, a small number of species such as accelerator NOBS are suspected of causing cancer, the production will therefore be reduced, and the demand for morpholine raw materials will be reduced accordingly. It is estimated that the domestic demand for main raw materials for rubber chemicals in 2007 will be: 118,000 tons of aniline, 13,000 tons of cyclohexylamine, 1400 tons of dicyclohexylamine, 6,700 tons of tert-butylamine, 1,100 tons of morpholine, and amino Diphenylamine was 38,000 tons, diphenylamine was 3050 tons, methyl isobutyl ketone was 23,500 tons, dimethylamine was 6,500 tons, diethylamine was 780 tons, and di-n-butylamine was 570 tons.
According to the future development of domestic main raw materials for rubber auxiliaries, the author proposes the following suggestions: aniline, to build a 100,000-ton-scale or higher-scale device, and at the same time, the raw materials can be supplied in sufficient quantities; Cyclohexylamine can be used to adjust the monocyclohexylamine and the second ring. The technology of hexylamine ratio, at the same time owns the raw material aniline resources; tert-butylamine, we must accelerate the development and production of advanced isobutene process technology, and adopt the self-developed or introduced technology to build a 5,000-ton or above-scale device as soon as possible; methyl isobutyl ketone, domestic demand Relying on imports, we must speed up the introduction of technology in the future, and build 20,000 to 30,000-tonne plants in East China, where raw material supply is abundant and the downstream market is concentrated; the use of advanced nitrobenzene process technology for p-aminodiphenylamines is required. About 10,000 tons of devices; two n-butylamine, a certain number of domestic imports each year, can also be moderately developed; morpholine and diphenylamine, a serious excess domestic supply and demand, the future should not blindly build new devices; dimethylamine, two Ethylamine, domestic supply is not a big problem.
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