In the past 20 years, due to the changes in the market structure and pricing mechanism, the pricing power of oil trade has gradually shifted to the futures market. Oil has therefore become a financial asset and fluctuations in oil prices have completely become a financial phenomenon and a currency phenomenon. The outbreak of the financial crisis and the oil crisis will inevitably lead to a new world energy picture. How does China locate in this picture and how to deal with it?
Unlike the last oil crisis, if we see oil prices soaring and plunging as a crisis, then this oil crisis is an integral part of the financial crisis. In the past 20 years, due to the changes in the market structure and pricing mechanism, the pricing power of oil trade has gradually shifted to the futures market. The futures market is a part of the financial market. It can reflect the relationship between supply and demand in advance. It can also be affected by the economic policies of the location of the futures market, especially the major countries. As a result, oil has become a financial asset and fluctuations in oil prices have completely become a financial phenomenon and currency phenomenon.
Therefore, we have seen that the rise in oil prices since the new millennium is inconsistent with economic growth. BP's research also shows that in the 1970s, economic growth was the basic driving force for the rise of primary energy prices; however, the rise in energy prices since the new millennium has deviated from economic growth. Before the oil price began to plummet in mid-July this year, the price increase that lasted for six years was the longest period since the oil price continued to rise in 1861. During this period, there was no strong economic growth to support the high oil price. The only thing that floods the market is China's demand factors, dollar depreciation factors, geopolitical tensions, and other speculative themes used by financial speculators.
Plunging is also an integral part of financial market turmoil. The so-called economic recession, shrinking demand and other factors can not fully explain the tragic situation of falling 70% within 4 months. Many large international investment banks have been deeply involved since the formation of the oil futures market. Some investment banks are also the largest suppliers of spot wholesalers in certain regions of the United States. They not only carry out futures trading, but also carry out spot trading; they not only reserve crude oil, but also Has a huge oil production capacity. Therefore, these investment banks must make use of information advantages and influence to publish statements that are conducive to their own investment and business practices, and make money from both futures and spot prices. After the outbreak of the financial crisis, these investment banks face liquidity shortages, and they will inevitably realise their assets under control to make up for the subprime mortgages and other losses as soon as possible. Crude oil futures bear the brunt of this, and as a result, the oil market collapsed in the short term. People are surprised.
Obviously, oil products with the nature of assets are completely out of supply and demand in the financial market and become an asset that can be speculatively insane. The international financial speculation group has become the blacklist behind the crude oil market. The study of speculation issues by economic theories faces enormous challenges.
As oil prices skyrocket, emerging energy-exporting countries such as South Africa, Nigeria, Angola, and Libya have sought to implement a diplomatic diversification strategy in order to obtain financial support and have introduced preferential policies to help them achieve energy production increase plans and seize the energy market. The oil-producing countries were dumped and their lumbar plates were hard. Venezuelan President Chavez became an anti-American fighter. In the past few years, he has promoted the nationalization of electricity, telecommunications, petroleum, and iron and steel industries throughout the country; he has also reduced oil exports to the United States, explored the international market, and diversified the export market. As oil revenues account for 50% of Venezuela’s national income and 90% of foreign exchange earnings, the drop in oil prices has caused great financial crisis for Venezuela and will shelve President Chavez’s grand social development plan.
Russia’s oil exports account for 30% of its total GDP and 60% of its foreign exchange reserves. The sharp fall in oil prices has had an immediate impact. An important reference for Russia's 2009 budget is the bottom line of international oil prices at $75. When the international oil price is 60 US dollars per barrel, the fiscal revenue and expenditure begins to have a deficit; when it is less than 50 US dollars, the deficit will exceed 1% of the GDP. In a report entitled "Development of Russia's Competitiveness under the Financial Crisis," the Russian Committee acknowledged that Russia has experienced an economic crisis and is likely to continue for two years. In 2009, Russia will be "the most difficult one." year". For this reason, the Russian government has lowered the oil export tax for three consecutive months. In the next few years, will the leaders of Russia still speak with fullness in the past few years?
A few years ago, in the face of skyrocketing oil prices, the United States and Europe are also pointing their fingers around the sidelines. On the one side is the Chinese energy threat theory, saying that China’s demand has led to soaring oil prices; on the other, it has secretly giggled and finally learned the magic weapon to curb the rise of China. I did not expect that the stone had really fallen on its own feet. The Americans themselves had gone awry and the investment banks had turned their homes on. Europeans began to think that they were very lucky and would not be affected by the financial crisis. They knew that they were actually better than the United States. More vulnerable. Since the EU is not a federal government, although the banking issue is not as serious as the United States, the EU countries not only have to bear huge social benefits, but also limit the country’s fiscal deficit. Therefore, the ability to resist financial risks is much worse than that of the United States. Europeans finally paid the price for maintaining a currency union. Some small countries, such as Iceland, have also become victims of the United States shifting to inflation and the financial crisis.
In the long run, the outbreak of the financial crisis and the oil crisis will inevitably lead to a new world energy picture. How will China address this picture and how to deal with it? To tell the truth, we don't know the direction yet. However, it is certain that the existing economic development models, monetary systems, and energy utilization methods are not sustainable. Although it seems that the impact of the financial crisis on China's economy is not too great, the drop in oil prices has provided China with an opportunity to adjust its industrial structure. However, the export-oriented economy in the past was gradually affected by the financial crisis. If we continue to repeat the old development model, China's problems are likely to evolve from the real economy level to the financial level.
Former U.S. Vice President Gore used an imagery metaphor to illustrate the embarrassing situation facing the United States in terms of energy, environment, and climate security. We borrowed money from China to purchase oil from the Persian Gulf and destroyed the earth during the burning of oil. . In this sentence, China buys oil from the Middle East at a high price and produces cheap goods for the United States. We have destroyed our own environment in the process of burning oil, and the money we have earned has devalued significantly in the United States. Because of fear of continued devaluation, we must continue to increase the holding of US Treasury bonds. What a terrible logical relationship this is. Without changing this logic, we can only endure the fate of the financial crisis and the oil crisis once in eight years.
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