The China Purchasing and Purchasing Federation and the National Bureau of Statistics Service Survey Center jointly issued the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) of 50.0% in June, a slight decrease of 0.1% from the previous month, and exceeded the threshold for four consecutive months. The value of non-manufacturing business activity index remained stable at 52% for three consecutive months. Analysts pointed out that in the first half of the year, China's economic operation has generally stabilized and its structure has been further optimized. In particular, the pace of non-manufacturing expansion is accelerating and it is expected to enhance the sustainability of the stable operation of the economy.
The reporters found out that since March this year, the manufacturing PMI has rebounded, and it has remained at a slightly higher level than 50% in recent months. However, the monthly data also fluctuate slightly. In June, the PMI index fell slightly.
Zhang Liqun, a macroeconomic researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that the PMI is still above the 50% critical point, indicating that China's economy has generally stabilized; the data has declined in June, indicating that the economic development in the second quarter will continue after the economic recovery in the first quarter. After the signs of falling, there is still downward pressure on the economic operation.
In particular, the recent Brexit has added new variables to the world economy, which may aggravate the fluctuation of the international financial market and upset the existing trade pattern of the global economy. In addition, international trade conflicts with China have increased significantly. This phenomenon is particularly prominent in the steel industry and will also increase the uncertainty in the expansion of China's external demand.
However, Chen Zhongtao, an analyst at the China Logistics Information Center, also pointed out that there are certain seasonal factors in the data drop. “The high temperature and rainy weather in July and August is the off-season of production and business activities. The trend of manufacturing PMI in June showed an off-season feature.â€
Experts believe that the trend of manufacturing PMI shows that China's economic trends have basically bottomed out, and reflects the trend of further optimizing the economic structure:
First, the tensions that have plagued companies and the rising labor costs have eased. In the first half of this year, the proportion of enterprises that reflected funding constraints was 42.7%, which was 0.8 percentage points lower than the same period of last year and 1.5 percentage points lower than that in the second half of last year. The proportion of enterprises that reflected the increase in labor costs was 40.1%, which was 4.5 percentage points lower than the same period of last year. It was 0.8 percentage points lower than the second half of last year.
Second, the effect of destocking was obvious. The balance between supply and demand in the market turned better, and prices rebounded. In the first half of the year, the finished goods inventory index was 46%, compared with 47.8% in the same period of last year, down 1.8 percentage points. From the perspective of market supply and demand balance, the gap between the production index and the new orders index has narrowed, and it has been below 2% in the first half of this year, and over 2% in the same period of last year. Market prices rebounded significantly.
Third, the new economic forces have accelerated their growth. From the point of view of manufacturing industry, the equipment manufacturing industry and high-tech industries have accelerated their development. The PMI index has been higher than the overall average level of the manufacturing industry, and has accelerated its development since entering the second quarter. In contrast, traditional overcapacity industries and high energy-consuming industries continued to decline, and the PMI index was significantly lower than the average level of the manufacturing industry.
While the manufacturing PMI stabilized, the non-manufacturing business activity index remained relatively high, stabilizing at more than 52% for three consecutive months. The apparent recovery of the financial industry has supported the stability of the service industry.
Data show that in June, China's non-manufacturing business activity index was 53.7%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month; business activity expectations index was 58.6%, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous month.
Cai Jin, Vice President of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, said that in June the non-manufacturing business activity index, new orders index and sales price index showed a trend of pick-up, especially the construction industry's new orders index showed a larger increase, indicating an increase in investment demand. Speed ​​up and play a good supporting role for the future stable economic operation.
In addition, Wu Wei, an analyst at the China Logistics Information Center, introduced that in June the financial industry activities had apparently recovered, capital market volatility had eased, and corporate capital requirements had been guaranteed to some extent.
However, the real estate index is still shrinking. According to changes in data in June, there is still some uncertainty in the real estate development investment in the second half of the year.
From an expert's point of view, the sustainability of the current stable operation of the economy has increased. It is expected that the investment in infrastructure construction as an important part of the "shortening board" will continue to exert its force in the second half of the year. The service industry will maintain stable operation and the business environment of the business will be improved.
At the same time, there are still two issues that deserve attention: First, the demand for the service industry still needs to be improved. It is necessary to continue to increase the intensity of consumer upgrades, increase effective supply, enhance the quality of supply, and consolidate the demand base for economic operations; second, focus on the real estate market. The impact of changes on economic performance.
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