After experiencing the peak of automobile consumption promoted by the policy in 2009, the market generally expects that the Chinese auto market will still maintain a certain degree of growth in 2010. According to the general idea, the increase in sales of new cars will increase the number of car ownership, and there will be a huge demand for car repairs in the future. Does this logic make the growth of the performance of auto parts listed companies logical? The answer to the market seems to be different.
Some analysts told the China Securities Journal that the performance of auto parts listed companies will depend more on the growth of domestic demand for new car sales and the recovery of parts and components exports. The demand for Spare Parts generated by huge auto repairs is not the same as that for new cars. The parts and components listed companies provide, in contrast, the good and bad parts manufacturers are the main body of the auto repair market.
Two main growth lines
The automobile revitalization plan has boosted car sales, and the auto stocks have seen an immediate increase. At the same time, the performance of listed auto parts companies has also skyrocketed. For example, Huayu Automobile's third quarterly report shows that the company achieved operating income of 15.8 billion yuan in the first three quarters, net profit of 983 million yuan, and earnings per share of 0.47 yuan, an exceptionally significant year-on-year increase.
Analysts pointed out that in 2009, the performance of parts and components listed companies increased. Thanks to the boom in auto sales, the growth of parts and components listed companies in the future is mainly dependent on the fiery consumption of new Chinese vehicles. Once domestic demand cannot be effectively released, the growth of parts and components listed companies will face challenges.
Judging from the current car sales expectations, after the debate on whether the auto sales overdraft future car market in 2009 has been suspended, the market is generally expected to have a good growth rate in 2010, which will list the future auto parts and components. The company constitutes a performance support. However, the market trend of auto sales afterwards is not optimistic. Therefore, the performance of listed auto parts companies is also not optimistic.
After China's auto revitalization policy is withdrawn, there will be difficulties in the growth of auto demand. At that time, the recovery of exports will become another growth factor for auto parts listed companies. At the time of the financial crisis, European and American auto consumption was sluggish, and auto giants were on the brink of bankruptcy, leading to the bankruptcy of some large auto parts makers.
With the gradual recovery of the European and American economies and the renewed enthusiasm for car consumption, China's spare parts companies will usher in opportunities. Due to the bankruptcy of some parts companies in Europe and the United States, part of the market share was withdrawn, and China's spare parts company will fill the vacant market share.
However, this market space is also facing pressure from anti-dumping measures launched by European and American countries from time to time, such as anti-dumping measures such as tire protection cases, causing China's parts and components companies to export a serious dilemma.
Experts explained that with the rapid growth of Chinese autos, the auto parts market is also booming, but China’s auto parts market has a short development time, repeated construction, small scale, backward technology, slow product replacement and other issues are still common . Among auto parts products, the proportion of electronic products with high technological content and high efficiency is low, while overseas sales of low value-added products will be vulnerable to anti-dumping investigations.
Controversy in the aftermarket
After the new car sales hit a record high and car ownership soared, according to the normal logic, the auto parts market should be followed by growth, and market participants are actively convinced that the auto parts market has a larger growth space in China.
However, there are controversies about whether the listed companies can share the vast after-sales market in the future. Nanjing Securities Zhang Qi believes that the hot car sales will be extended to parts and components listed companies, parts and components market has a certain lag, the future growth of parts and components listed companies is more clear.
Bohai Securities Zhang Liping believes that the hot sales of automobiles will certainly drive the development of the parts and components market. However, how many parts and components listed companies can share is uncertain. On the one hand, aftermarket manufacturers in the automotive aftermarket are mixed, mainly in the price war. Parts of listed companies do not have price advantage in the aftermarket. On the other hand, parts and components listed companies will face the pressure of increasing raw material costs in 2010.
Experts pointed out that in the auto parts market, large-scale parts and components companies have the concept of “re-supply and light after-salesâ€. They only attach importance to supporting the entire vehicle, but do not pay enough attention to the aftermarket parts market, which leads to large-scale Enterprises do not have an advantage in the aftermarket, providing many small parts and components companies with low-cost competition opportunities. If the large-scale parts and components companies pay more attention to the aftermarket parts market, it is expected to expand the advantages in the supporting field.
Breakdown leader worth attention
Although large-scale enterprises are not dominant in the aftermarket parts and components price war, they cannot conceal the leading position of some parts and components listed companies in the parts and components market. Many analysts said that among the listed auto parts companies, some of the leading auto parts companies are worthy of attention.
Ping An Securities believes that parts and components companies usually focus on a certain accessories field and are easy to form their own core competitiveness in the subdivided areas. The characteristics of light assets are obvious, and the output units need less investment, and the profits are more stable than the whole vehicle. The return on assets is relatively higher. In addition, many parts and components companies are privately-owned capital-holding companies. The enterprises are more aggressive and have better control over costs and expenses. The medium and long-term investment value of such companies is worth watching.
From the perspective of the part companies participating in the vehicle accessories model, after the general parts and components companies supply parts and components to the entire vehicle company, they will undergo a period of trial and operation. After the products are approved, the supply relationship of the parts and components companies will be Consolidated, parts and components companies will enter the bulk supply phase, and gradually establish its own leading position in the subdivision field.
From the perspective of the development history of China's parts and components companies, the development period is short and the growth space is large. At present, some parts and components companies have stepped into the international market and established a certain status. At the same time, they are expected to receive industrial policy support in the future. Ping An Securities believes that there will be more stealth champions in the future parts and components companies.
According to many analysts interviewed by China Securities Journal reporters, analysts have their own well-known parts and components listed companies. For example, Fuyao Glass currently has a share of approximately 10% in the global automotive glass market, ranking fourth, and the company’s export domestic sales ratio is approximately 3:7. At present, the company’s share in the domestic OEM matching market is close to 60%, and it is supported by international OEMs. The market share of about 2%, has been the world's eight major car manufacturers certification.
Weichai Power, whose stock price was close to a daily limit on January 6, was also favored by analysts. Zhang Liping, Bohai Securities analyst, believes that the company's dominance in heavy-duty engine and transmission industry, enjoys a high gross margin level, outstanding profitability, the company will continue to maintain competitive advantage in the heavy truck engine and heavy-duty transmission field in the next 3-5 years. .
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