According to the results of telephone interviews conducted by reporters and dealers across the country, 70% of dealers’ stocks are much lower than the same period of previous years. Dealers are still waiting to see if there is room for decline in fertilizer prices. Constrained by high raw material prices, fertilizer production costs remain high. Fertilizer prices will remain high in the first quarter of 2011, and the average price of fertilizers may set a record high. It is hoped that dealers can analyze the situation objectively and start preparing fertilizer as soon as possible.
High bullish raw materials At present, natural gas and coal prices are running at a high level. The overall increase in natural gas since the second half of 2010 has caused the cost of tons of urea to rise by 240 to 280 yuan. At present, the price of anthracite lump coal is generally 1600~1700 yuan, and some even as high as 1,800 yuan. The urea production cost of these enterprises is generally more than 1,900 yuan. At the same time, international sulphur prices are still at a high level and the supply is tight, which will, to a certain degree, lead to higher prices of diammonium and compound fertilizers. Therefore, it is unlikely that the fertilizer market will cut prices in the short term, and even a slight increase will occur.
Supply and demand each other ups and downs Looking forward to 2011, with the basic completion of energy-saving emission reduction tasks, most shut down companies to resume normal production, is expected to increase production levels will be about 5% level, can basically restore the level of 2009. At the same time, affected by the tightening of national tariffs, the number of fertilizer exports will decrease in 2011, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the market will ease. However, in the first quarter of 2011, the supply of urea in some parts of the country will be tightened. The reason is that since August 2010, the energy conservation and emission reduction efforts have been large and the export volume has increased significantly. Some people think that the supply of urea will be reduced by 600. Ten thousand tons. On the demand side, in 2010, the prices of agricultural products increased significantly, and the price increases of rice, wheat, and corn products were all above 10%. The growth of cotton and other economic crops and vegetables and fruits was even greater, and the growth of many varieties doubled or even doubled. Fan. In 2011, the price of agricultural products is still expected to be in an upward channel, and the enthusiasm of farmers for planting will be very high. Together with the rigid demand for fertilizers, the demand for fertilizers will remain large.
Spring Festival Transport Tension The 2011 Spring Festival was launched on January 19th. There will be tension in transporting fertilizers on railroads. In particular, shipments to the northeastern market are not very smooth; the Ministry of Railways in the northwest region guarantees the transport of potash fertilizer, urea, diammonium and There will be restrictions on the transportation of compound fertilizers, which will have a great impact on the outsourcing of fertilizers in enterprises. In particular, shipping difficulties across provinces will increase. After the end of the 40-day spring season, the spring plowing was started immediately. In the short term, there may be a situation in which the fertilizer is looting and the money is not available. The bottleneck of transportation may boost a new round of price increase.
Therefore, people in the industry believe that in the first quarter of 2011, fertilizer prices will continue to remain high due to factors such as the increase in prices of fertilizer raw materials, the easing of the contradiction between supply and demand of chemical fertilizers and short-term transport shortages caused by the Spring Festival travel, and there is little room for price cuts in the short term. In the case of tight urea supply, prices may even rise slightly in the short term. Dealers should take a rational view of the market, should actively prepare fertilizer, and strive to protect the spring.
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