China Manufacturing still maintains strong competitiveness

According to data recently released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, in the first three quarters of this year, the total trade volume between the United States and China was 441.6 billion U.S. dollars. During the same period, the total trade volume between the United States and Canada was US$ 438.1 billion. According to media reports, China replaced Canada as the U.S. largest trading partner. This may not be so accurate. First, because trade includes trade in goods and services, the total trade in services between China and the United States is less than that of Canada, and the overall may not exceed that of Canada; secondly, the scope of partners may include the European Union, and the first three quarters of the EU and the United States Total trade in goods exceeds 500 billion U.S. dollars. In any case, under the current global economic downturn, China’s exports to the United States are indeed a major bright spot.

From the perspective of China, total merchandise trade exports from January to October decreased by 2.5% year-on-year, while exports to the United States increased by 5.2%. From the perspective of the United States, the total volume of imports of goods in the first three quarters fell by 3.6% year-on-year, while imports from China increased by 5.5%. China's export growth against the United States has been on the rise because, on the one hand, the external demand of the United States has not really shrunk; on the other hand, it is a manifestation that China still maintains its strong competitiveness, and thus it can achieve “taking over the curve”.

Since the second half of last year, the United States has maintained a strong dollar and has stimulated imports. From the data point of view, although US imports decreased year-on-year, except for “industrial supplies”, imports of other types of products increased year-on-year. Industrial raw materials, including crude oil, are the major product categories that Canada exports to the United States. Its export value has shrunk due to the decline in international commodity prices. China’s exports to the United States are mainly consumer goods and capital goods, with the former growth rate of 7.7% year-on-year.

The products exported by China to the United States have higher technological content. The total volume of high-tech product imports in the first three quarters of the US statistics was 316.2 billion U.S. dollars, of which imports from China were 110.4 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for about 1/3. This shows that China's manufacturing does not rely solely on cheap labor to win an advantage in global competition. After examining China's exports to the United States for a longer period of time, the comprehensive advantages of Chinese manufacturing have become clearer. During the 10 years from 2004 to 2014, China’s exports to the United States increased by 137%, while total imports from the United States only increased by about 60% over the same period.

China has made a lot of efforts for trade balance. While the rapid growth of exports to the United States, imports from the United States have grown faster and have increased about threefold between 2004 and 2014. However, the United States has not vigorously carried out structural adjustments to promote trade balance. Obama’s promise to return to the manufacturing industry has not been fulfilled at all. In order to stimulate the economy and stimulate domestic demand, the supply capacity has not increased and the demand has expanded. Of course, it can only rely on imports. The demand for Chinese products will inevitably grow.

In fact, the intention of the United States is not to rely on exports but on service exports to promote trade balance. Since 2008, its service trade surplus has increased by nearly one-fold. The deficit in China’s service trade with the United States has increased by nearly five times during this period. How to strive for more favorable conditions in service trade will be a problem that we need to focus on.

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