What is Freight Volume?
Booming economic activity leads to an increase in the amount of freight that needs to be transported. Freight volume refers to the total quantity of goods—both imported and exported—that moves through the transportation network. Virtually every physical product produced or sold within the U.S. economy passes through the commercial vehicle (CV) market.
Why Does Freight Volume Matter?
Understanding market trends is essential for businesses, regardless of the economic climate. It allows companies to anticipate challenges and seize opportunities effectively. Shippers are the ones who own or supply the goods being transported, while carriers handle the logistics, with brokers acting as intermediaries. The volume of freight moving between these parties directly influences how they operate and make decisions.
Having accurate data on freight volume helps businesses plan more efficiently and stay ahead of market shifts. One helpful way to visualize supply and demand in the truckload (TL) market is through the concept of a pendulum. When demand outpaces available capacity—such as when there's a shortage of drivers or trucks—the pendulum swings toward fleets, leading to higher freight rates. Conversely, if supply grows faster than demand, the pendulum swings back to shippers, causing rates to drop. This cycle makes it challenging to align long-term business strategies with short-term fluctuations in freight demand.
How Is Freight Volume Measured?
Many companies face limitations in their internal data, and collecting broader market insights can be costly. To address this, ACT Research gathers confidential information from a wide range of trucking companies, especially small and mid-sized carriers that move a significant portion of freight in North America. The data collected includes:
- Trends in business volume,
- Market price trends,
- Expectations for vehicle sales and purchases.
The ACT For-Hire Trucking Index provides a comprehensive view of the transportation and commercial vehicle markets by surveying carriers. In addition, ACT Research partners with Cass Information Systems, Inc., the largest processor of freight billing in the U.S., to gain deeper insights into current market conditions and the state of the shipping sector. ACT uses tools like the Cass Freight Index®, which measures freight volumes and spending, and the Truckload Linehaul Index®, a pricing indicator, to forecast future freight demand.
What Is ACT Saying About Freight Volume Right Now?
As of October 2024, freight volumes have remained relatively stable throughout the year, but the year-over-year (y/y) comparison shows improvement. The ACT For-Hire Trucking Index averaged 48.8 in the first half of 2024, up from 42.8 in the same period last year. Despite some consumer spending pressures, real U.S. retail sales have increased by 1.8% year-to-date (YTD), supported by ongoing disinflation. Additionally, intermodal and import volumes are trending positively, contributing modestly to overall surface freight volumes.
While private fleet insourcing has likely pulled some demand away from the for-hire market, recent softening in U.S. Class 8 tractor sales suggests a slowdown in private fleet growth. This shift highlights the dynamic nature of the freight market and the importance of tracking both demand and supply factors.
Freight Volume Forecasting
ACT Research uses two key metrics to forecast the truckload and less-than-truckload markets:
- Cass Freight Index® – Shipments
- ACT Freight Composite Index
Both metrics reflect consumer demand that drives the movement of goods by carriers. In other words, they measure the actual volume of freight being transported.
The Cass Freight Index® – Shipments tracks the number of freight shipments handled within North America by Cass Information Systems. With over $44 billion in annual freight transactions, Cass is a reliable source for measuring shipper activity.
The ACT Freight Composite Index estimates the total freight hauled across different sectors, developed by ACT Research. These two demand indicators provide valuable insights into expected freight volumes over the next 6 to 36 months, helping to balance supply and demand when combined with ACT’s capacity metrics.
To understand how freight volume may evolve in the coming months and access detailed analysis and forecasts for truckload, less-than-truckload, and intermodal markets, visit ACT’s freight and transportation forecast report.
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