Global industry is continuing to rebound

At the end of May, due to the impact of the European debt problem on the global economic recovery, crude oil prices fell below US$70/barrel and led to a sharp decline in the prices of global petrochemical products, including olefins, aromatic hydrocarbons, and polyolefins, and people said whether the market would weaken. worry. However, Moody's Investors Service still adheres to its forecast that the chemical industry in Asia, the Americas, and Europe is steadily continuing to rebound.

Moody's said at the end of May that demand recovery, low raw material prices and good balance sheets are stimulating a steady recovery of the global chemical industry. In this context, the global chemical industry's credit environment will not undergo major changes in the next 12-18 months. Moody's believes that the current recovery in demand for chemical industry is global. Among them, the demand in Asia has reached the level before the financial crisis, but the demand in the United States and Europe is still far from the pre-crisis level. Although the current euro crisis in southern Europe is worrying, the company is still optimistic about growth in the Nordic region. Moody's predicts that the industrial output value of the United States and the euro zone will increase by 4.3% and 2.3% respectively this year. In 2011, the growth rate of US industrial output will fall slightly to 4.1%, while the growth rate of the euro zone will increase to 3.4%.

Moody's pointed out that the global chemical industry's M&A transaction is expected to grow this year, and some companies will benefit from M&A transactions due to their abundant cash flow. The global chemical industry's M & A activity began to recover from the end of 2009. The momentum of this recovery is still continuing, and some large M & A transactions are expected to occur in the second half of this year. However, Moody's also pointed out that due to the global economy just out of the shadow of the crisis, most companies' mergers and acquisitions are still cautious. Only 2011 will truly usher in a strong rebound in the activity of M&A transactions.

Moody's said that considering the current situation, some factors may hinder the progress of recovery. For example, the residential and auto markets in the next 12-18 months are still unlikely to return to pre-crisis levels. The gradual withdrawal of economic stimulus policies by various governments may be The recovery has had an adverse effect. However, Moody's still insists that there will be no double bottoming in the global economy.

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