Du Ying, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said yesterday that the National Development and Reform Commission is deploying according to the requirements of the State Council, and hastened to work out plans for the ten major industries, and may introduce them in a short period of time. The fastest of these will be the two major industrial plans for steel and automobiles. According to industry analysts, at present, the domestic steel industry has a warming trend, but the uncertainty of demand and weak export still exist, and the situation of “polarization†of the company may appear.
Some people are cautious
In view of the first accumulated industrial losses in the domestic steel industry in the fourth quarter of last year, overcapacity in the steel industry and a serious decline in the macroeconomic outlook, the industry is cautious about the Chinese steel industry.
JP Morgan Managing Director Li Jing said that due to the corporate sector’s efforts to save cash, private investment in fixed assets may be stagnant in 2009. The development of steel consumption major real estate developers has greatly reduced. There are also some uncertainties in the amount of new expenditures related to the public infrastructure plan, which will affect the speed of recovery of domestic demand and thus affect the Chinese steel industry. In addition, the Chinese steel export market remained weak in 2009.
Li Jing said that although some domestic large and medium-sized steel companies have announced their 2009 operating targets, most of the expected output is equal to or slightly higher than the level of 2008. However, it is still expected that the Chinese steel industry will face unprecedented challenges this year.
Steel industry or polarization
Under such circumstances, the domestic steel industry may experience polarization, that is, large enterprises may soon become more aggressive and SMEs are more difficult.
My steel analyst Wang Ping said that although large-scale enterprises suffered heavy losses, their normal production cash flow has not been greatly affected due to the sharp decline in raw material prices. The soon-to-be-promulgated measures for the revitalization of the steel industry in the country will benefit the largest steel companies. Due to their strong technical reserves and strong fund-raising capabilities, they may take the opportunity to increase resources to control, advance technological progress, accelerate product mix adjustment, and start mergers and acquisitions.
Based on the actual consideration of overcapacity of steel in a period of time in the future, the space for development of small and medium-sized steel enterprises is shrinking, and the difficulty of financing is relatively increasing. In addition to the anticipated changes in the economic situation, the impulse to invest itself has disappeared, and the pace of corporate development has clearly slowed. In addition, the barriers to entry for the products market currently produced by SMEs are generally low, and their ability to resist risks is poor.
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