The new cycle of raw material and chemical industries has already crossed the highest point, and has begun to decline; and due to the lag in the transmission cycle in the product chain, the downstream chemical industry is currently on the eve of the peak, which is about to usher in rapid growth. The golden period of development. At the first organic intermediate and fine chemical science and technology week held in Qingdao on July 21-25, Dr. Zhang Mingsen, deputy chief engineer of the Beijing Chemical Research Institute of Sinopec, made the above analysis.
According to reports, in recent years, China's raw material chemical industry has achieved extraordinary development, and all indications indicate that this round of development cycle of raw material chemical industry has crossed the highest point and began to decline, but the development inertia and investment cycle determine the next 5 to 10 years Production will also increase significantly within this period, but the crisis factor is faintly visible.
Zhang Mingsen believes that the potential crisis of raw materials and chemical industry happens to be an opportunity for fine chemicals. Because of the oversupply of basic chemical raw materials, fine chemicals have sufficient raw material guarantees. It is estimated that by 2010, China's oil refining capacity will reach 380 million tons, and by-product C4 will be about 7.4 million to 9.3 million tons; ethylene capacity will reach 18.11 million tons, and by-products such as C4 and C5 will be 7.24 million tons; methanol production capacity will reach 3000 10,000 tons, according to 30% used as fuel, there will be 21 million tons of products to flow to the fine chemical industry; in addition, ethylene oxide, ethylene glycol, styrene, phenol, acetone, propylene oxide, etc. will also be substantially Increase production.
The rapid development of raw materials and chemicals also provides a broad market for fine chemicals. Large-scale production of polyethylene, polypropylene, rubber, etc. requires a large amount of fine chemical products such as plastic additives and rubber auxiliaries; at the same time, the demand for fuel oil additives, lubricant additives, and petrochemical processing aids will also be met. remarkable growth.
In addition, the hysteresis of periodic wave transmission has won time for the development of fine chemicals. When the price of upstream raw materials rises, it will cause prices of fine chemical raw materials to rise, but fine chemical products are mostly in the buyer's market, and the price increase will be slowed down by downstream users. This is the most difficult period for fine chemicals, and this period is now It is past that fine chemical products have formed a new balance in the high-priced raw material phase. Zhang Mingsen believes that the large-scale development of raw materials and chemical industry will inevitably lead to a new round of price cuts, and there will be a time lag between the price reduction of raw materials and the price reduction of fine chemical products, which will be the prime time for the development of fine chemicals.