As the coal-to-methanol project blooms all over the place, it will become a hot spot for debate whether methanol will seriously overcapacity in the near future. The biggest difference is the prediction of domestic methanol production and demand in the coming years.
According to statistics from the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, there are 88 methanol planning projects in China so far with a capacity of 48.5 million tons per year. Recently, CNOOC plans to build another 1.13 million tons/year methanol project, which is expected to be completed in 2008. By then, CNOOC will annually produce 2 million tons of methanol, which will become the world's largest methanol production base. In addition, Inner Mongolia Shenhua Baoji Shiller plans to build a 1.8 million tons/year methanol project, and Xinjiang Yili plans to build an annual output of 5.4 million tons of methanol and 1.8 million tons of olefins. According to the current momentum, many people in the industry have made pessimistic forecasts for the domestic methanol market in the next few years.
Liu Zuozhou, executive vice president of the Shanxi Provincial Federation of Industrial Economics, said that according to current capacity calculations for construction and planning and construction projects, by 2010, the national annual methanol production capacity will reach 50 million tons, and the demand will be less than 20 million tons by that time. In the past two years, the consumption of methanol in China has only remained between 4 million tons and 6 million tons. Wang Wenxi, deputy general manager of Shanghai Coking Co., Ltd., also pointed out at a recent seminar that most of the equipment in China will be put into operation from the end of 2007 to the beginning of 2008. From 2008 to 2009, it will be the peak period for the centralized production of methanol plants. There will be a large surplus after 2008.
However, Chen Weiguo, secretary-general of the National Committee for Alcohol Ether Fuel and Alcohol Ether Clean Cars, believes that this situation will not occur. He puts forth four reasons: First, although many companies are clamoring for a methanol project, there are not many in a wait-and-see situation. Second, the technology for producing olefins and dimethyl ether from methanol in China is not yet mature, so it is not the case that these projects can all successfully produce methanol. Third, the cost of methanol production will force some companies to exit the market. On the one hand, the cost of methanol based on natural gas has risen. On the other hand, companies that are too small have lost their competitiveness due to high costs. Fourth, the National Development and Reform Commission has suspended the approval of coal chemical projects and has caused the declaration of coal-to-methanol projects to be stagnant. This policy has curbed the emergence of other new methanol production projects and controls unregulated investments. According to these, Chen Weiguo believes that by 2010, the national methanol production will be around 20 million tons, and the demand will be more than 16 million tons.
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