The two-day meeting of the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors ended in Paris, France on February 19. Participating countries reached a preliminary consensus on the assessment of the imbalance of the world economy. G20 decided to select a package of indicators to measure the imbalance of the world economy and determine the fiscal deficit and government public debt, private savings rate and private debt, trade accounts and net investment income and transfer accounts as a measure.
The G20 finance ministers and central bank governors issued a joint statement on the 19th: "The momentum of global economic recovery continues to solidify, but the process is still unbalanced and downside risks remain." The recovery of advanced economies and emerging economies will continue at different speeds and face Different risks.
Indicators of economic imbalances have been released. In this package of world economic imbalance assessment indicators, fiscal deficits, public debt and private savings are internal imbalance indicators; the balance of mobile capital transactions and the actual effective exchange rate are external imbalance indicators. The most controversial foreign exchange reserves have not been included in the assessment indicators, and exchange rate, fiscal and monetary policies will be used as a reference factor in measuring future economic imbalances.
At the press conference held after the meeting, Lagarde, French Finance Minister of the G20 presidency, said that the primary objective of the meeting was to determine the appropriate tools for measuring economic imbalances in order to “assess economic policies of countries and determine these The extent to which the policy is conducive to the recovery of the global economy does not merely take into account the country’s own interests.â€
Lagarde pointed out that the above indicators are not binding targets, but will serve as guiding indicators for harmonizing economic policies of various countries and reducing the imbalance of the world economy.
Lagarde acknowledged that the G20 countries' definition of the economic imbalance index is "controversial." The G20 finance ministers will also hold a series of ministerial meetings in April, September and October, and hold the G20 summit in Cannes, France in November to fight for the ultimate "prescription" for the treatment of world economic imbalances.
Analysts believe that the world economy is moving from simplification to diversification. Because the process of economic recovery is not synchronized, the conflicts of interest between developed economies and emerging economies have intensified, and they are fully revealed at the G20 meeting on coordination of global economic policies.
Continuation of dual-track recovery Lagarde pointed out that the imbalance in the world economy is one of the triggers of the financial crisis. When representatives of the major economies of the world gathered in Paris, it coincided with the economic recovery entering the second year.
According to a Reuters report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) pointed out in its report to the G20 finance ministers’ meeting that the global economy is recovering at two speeds. “The recovery momentum of developed economies is gradually increasing, but economic downside risks remain; emerging economies The economy has grown rapidly, but the risk of overheating has continued to accumulate."
On the one hand, the current recovery of most advanced economies has steadily risen, but the unemployment rate remains high. The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting announced last week showed that the Federal Open Market Committee believes that the US economic recovery is “more stable and will continue to increase confidence in the economic recoveryâ€. The Fed predicts that the U.S. gross domestic product will grow by 3.4% to 3.9% this year, more optimistic than the expected increase of 3.0% to 3.6% in November last year. However, the US job market is still difficult to see improvement. The Fed predicts that by the end of this year, the unemployment rate will remain at a high of 8.8% to 9.0%.
On the other hand, emerging economies are still in a period of rapid growth, but the risk of overheating is increasing day by day. The IMF pointed out that as the economy is overheating and inflationary pressures are rising rapidly, the risk of a hard landing for emerging economies is intensifying. Lispski, the first vice chairman of the IMF, said: "Fast-growth emerging economies are facing the risk of overheating, and the global economic imbalance may be further expanded."
In addition, as inflationary pressures have risen, emerging economies such as India, Vietnam and Thailand have gradually tightened monetary policy and tightened capital controls. Coupled with the brightening of the US economic recovery, international capital has started to return to advanced economies. Although this is conducive to squeezing asset bubbles in emerging economies, large inflows and outflows of assets will inevitably have a huge impact on financial markets in the region, which is detrimental to the sustained and stable economic recovery.
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