Explore the future: The day when electric vehicles become mainstream may be faster than imagined
From November 11 to 12, 2017, the 2017 Global Future Travel Forum was officially held in Hangzhou. The topics of future travel and electric cars have once again been focused on by public opinion. Everything seems to tell us one thing, the era of electric cars is accelerating to us.
Economic factors promote the rapid development of electric vehicles
Since the country launched the 863 electric car major project in 2002, China's electric vehicles have entered a period of rapid development. What happened in the 15 years of this development? Tony Seba, a well-known American economist at Stanford University, told us that between 1995 and 2010, the cost of batteries and lithium batteries fell by 14% over the 15 years. In 2010-2014, the cost of batteries dropped by 10% per year. In the past few years, this reduced cost has even reached 20% per year.
The reduction in the price of core components such as batteries also reduces the cost of future electric vehicles further. Tony Seba said that at present, the cost price of an electric car is 35,000 U.S. dollars, and by 2025, this cost may be only 20,000 U.S. dollars. Economic factors will promote the rapid development of electric vehicles.
The outstanding performance of electric vehicles promotes the rapid development of electric vehicles
Compared with fuel vehicles, electric vehicles have unique advantages in energy consumption, emissions and performance. From the perspective of cost, with the improvement of battery technology and the decrease of battery prices, the cost of building a new energy vehicle in the future is likely to be lower than that of a fuel vehicle. From an energy point of view, electricity is easier to transport than gasoline and diesel. Electric energy can be transmitted very quickly in electronic and electric pipelines. Therefore, the cost of charging is relatively low, and maintenance is relatively easy. According to Tony Seba, electric The maintenance cost of a car is 10 times lower than that of an ordinary car. At the same time, electric vehicles have fewer parts and are more convenient to repair. The average car has more than 2,000 parts, but electric cars only have about 18 moving parts. At the same time, the service life of electric vehicles is longer than that of fuel vehicles. The lifespan of an electric car is more than 500,000 miles. We actually only open 10,000 miles per year.
From the performance point of view, the acceleration performance of electric vehicles 0-100km/h has always been something they proud of and the biggest selling point. Such as BYD's "Don" and "Qin." People take them and some super races to start an accelerated race, often winning electric cars.
Relevant departments pay more attention to promoting the rapid development of electric vehicles
Before 2009, only a few 2-3 departments such as the Ministry of Science and Technology and the Ministry of Finance were promoting the development of new energy vehicles. By 2017, this number has increased to 18. More and more relevant departments began to attach importance to and participate in the development of new energy vehicles.
The immediate change is our public transportation system. According to Wang Luping, the inspector of the Department of Transportation Services of the Ministry of Transport, at the end of last year, the transportation industry had a total of more than 270,000 new energy vehicles, of which more than 160,000 buses accounted for 27% of the total number of buses. New energy taxis have already reached 2 10,000 vehicles, new energy city logistics distribution vehicles nearly 100,000, is expected by the end of this year can be completed ahead of time National Office of the State Council, "on the promotion and application of new energy vehicles to promote guidance" proposed - by 2020 new energy vehicles in transportation The application of the industry has begun to take shape, with the overall goal of reaching 300,000 vehicles in city buses, taxis, and urban logistics and distribution.
National Policy Promotes Rapid Popularization of Electric Vehicles
Many countries announced in the form of regulations and plans to stop the sale of fuel vehicles between 2025 and 2040, and then only allow the sale of zero-emission vehicles. France 2040, Germany 2030, India 2030, Norway 2025, Netherlands 2025 ... Prior to news that China will soon promote the fuel vehicle ban sales regulations. The introduction of these hard laws and regulations will undoubtedly make a rapid transition for car companies.
In response, Volvo, Toyota, Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes-Benz and other international first-line depots have also announced their plans for the development of electric vehicles. Since 2019, all new Volvo models will be equipped with electric motors. Toyota will stop selling internal-combustion vehicles in 2050. Only hybrids, electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles will be sold. The Volkswagen Group expects to accumulatively sell 400,000 new energy vehicles in China. By 2025, it will serve as a Chinese consumer. Provides about 1.5 million zero-emission new energy vehicles. The addition of these first-line depots will also accelerate the rapid development of electric vehicles.
Gesch concluded : With the gradual improvement of electric vehicle technology and the addition of first-line brands, coupled with the outstanding performance of electric vehicles, lower maintenance costs, coupled with policy support and the introduction of mandatory development policies, etc., In the coming years, new energy vehicles will usher in a golden period of development. Previously, Mr. Dong Yang, executive vice president of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, once stated that by 2050, the global automotive power composition will include fuel cells, pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, hybrids, natural gas, and gasoline and diesel. . Among them, about 80% of vehicles are equipped with electric motors, 70% of vehicles are equipped with internal combustion engines, and about 50% of vehicles are hybrid vehicles that have both electric motors and internal combustion engines. However, according to the current rapid development of electric vehicles, this progress may be completed in advance.
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